Well, in terms of the growth of a religion in a particular religion, I
can relate a brief outline of the growth of Islam in Iran (back from
when I was doing my history degree).
Essentially, because the conquering Muslims were Arabs, there was
significant cultural, linguistic and religious differences between them
and the Zoroastrian Farsi-speaking Iranians. Within a generation or two
though a small number of Iranians had converted to Islam, this gradual
growth continued over a century or so (based on the changes in names in
geneologies etc from the period), but gradually began to pick up pace.
By about the 3rd or 4th century of Muslim rule in Iran, it had reached a
critical mass, and the majority of Muslims in Iran were now Iranians not
Arab. Shortly after this period, there is a sudden boost in Muslim
numbers, and a corresponding drop in Zoroastrians. From this period
(the 10th or 11th century I think) the appearance of the Parsis in India
dates (Zoroastrians who fled Iran), and the abandonment/destruction of
many firetemples. Religious conflict in Iran wasn't known in the first
few centuries, but only when a majority of Iranians had adopted Islam
did the issue of difference become an issue.
This pattern is the same in many societies experiencing a religious
change - little happens initially (unless the new religion challenges
the state), and converts are accepted at first. Only when they start
reaching a majority (almost) does a conflict start developing - and then
the winning "side" resumes its absolute majority status.
Not sure if this helps with yout discussion - you might be interested in
looking at the spread of Manicheanism (an off-shoot of Zoroastrianism).
Its missionary methods were so successful it penetrated Christianity
(Cathars) and Islam (Fatimids and the Ismailis), and even achieved a
temporary foothold in China. The variants of Manicheanism were so
successful because they had a method of gradual initiation - a novice
thought they were joining a Christian or Muslim group (respectively),
and only the masters knew of the dualist thought at the heart of the
sects. They were also found among some pre-Ottoman Turk groups, and the
Bosnian Bogomils.
Cheers,
Ibrahim
-----Original Message-----
From: bounces@phoenyx.net [mailto:bounces@phoenyx.net] On Behalf Of Juha
Vesanto
Sent: Wednesday, July 21, 2004 7:27 AM
To: celandra@phoenyx.net
Subject: Re: [Cel] Expansion
RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
>Then what would you consider typical? What historical religion,
>relevant to Exquaestio's situation, has had increased difficulty
>gaining converts simply due to their growth?
>
>
I'm afraid I can't boast about high level of knowledge of these issues,
so I
have to settle for common sense (insomuch as I have it). And that tells
me that exponential growth is exceptional, rather than the norm. The
typical case goes somewhere between a linear and exponential growth And
since the size scales in FIH follow the exponential curve, jumping from
one scale to next will be more difficult for each step.
Another reasoning for increased difficulity is this: initially, more or
less all members of the religion will act as missionaries (depending on
the drive for growth that the religion has). But when the religion
grows, the ratio of more-or-less passive members to the active ones
grows, too. Imagine the religion as a circle with the edge of the circle
acting as the converting agent. The ratio of the people on the edge
(missionaries) to the people inside the circle dimishes as the size of
the circle grows. For the same reason, the size modification for army
size in IH combat rules is not linear.
>On our world there are five "first tier" religions: Buddhism,
>Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, and Taoism.
>
Now you are only looking at the big religions. Apart from those five,
how many smaller religions and cults there are that have grown at a
smaller rate, and ultimately remained small / smallish? My measure of
"typical" goes along their lines. The big five are the extreme cases,
which have managed to make it big time.
>Of those, only Buddhism's and
>Islam's origins are sufficiently well documented to serve in world
>design.
>
If you use only those two, you are limited by the bias in the training
set: both grew up to be big religions, and fairly fast at that. Any
rules you derive from those two examples only apply to the same kind of
cases ==> you first assume that the religion is going to be a big one,
and then apply the rules. Gamewise, it might be possible to use this
kind of rules for Player societies, and another set of rules for
Non-player societies - but I have a strong aversion to this. The
difference between Player and
Non-player
societies should arise from the player, not from the rules.
How about scientology, or the various christian sects in the 19th and
20th century? I do not have any numbers of those, does anybody else? The
growth of various christian sects is especially interesting, since they
are
competing
essentially over the same resources, and all had basically big drives to
grow.
>So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further
>guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion
>and you're going to have to read my mind."
>
>
Hmm... it does seem that way. Although society growth is obviously a
very important aspect of interactive history (it has just been
downplayed so far because it is less relevant for the nations and big &
established religions, which basically grow only with natural population
growth, or by conquest), there have been no rules governing it. Well ...
(insert 2 days break here) ... here's my take on it:
Growth of societies
-------------------
Religions and other organizations consist of members. The organizations
themselves may actually own land, be part of a nation, or another
religion, but the size of the society is governed by how many members it
has.
Note: a single person may actually be a member in a number of
organizations (the surrounding nation, to start with).
Some organizations are stable, and their membership increases and
decreases only with the flow of the population. The stability may follow
from a
monopoly
situation (state religion), absence of a missionary drive in the
environment (non-competing religions for one pantheon, for example, with
active
missionary
work inhibited), or inability of people to switch their membership
(caste system).
In other cases, system dynamics govern the memberships of different
religions
and organizations (e.g. political parties). As well known, this can get
very
complicated very easily, so to simplify we only consider the case of a
single
organization (player society) acting in an otherwise stable environment.
p = population (number of members)
r = rate of conversion (one missionary converts r people per year)
m = missionary drive (the portion of society's members acting as
missionaries)
Both exist for both the society (s), and the environment (e). Thus the
change in
one year is:
(1) dp_s = p_s * m_s * r_s - p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, we'll insert some other factors. The portion of missionaries is not
linear
with the population: it will decrease when population increases (the
first ones
who join are the most eager ones, and later ones will on the average
have less
enthusiasm; there are also other factors influencing similarly). This is
function
f, 1/x <= f(x) <= 1.
(2) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * m_s * r_s - f(p_e) * p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, all the missionaries of the environment are hardly going to
concentrate on the single active society. We assume that these go hand
in hand (for
everyone
trying to convert a member, there is somebody on the opposite side
trying to keep hold of the member), so that for the delta calculation
p_e = s *
p_s,
where s is a suppression factor. If the environment feels threatened by
the active society, it will concentrate more effort into its missionary
activities
against the society. (NOTE: this works both ways: if the society size is
equal
or more than the size of its environment, the p_s is replaced with p_e,
not the
other way around.)
(3) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * (m_s * r_s - s * m_e * r_e)
= f(p_s) * p_s * m_e * r_e * (m_s/m_e * r_s/r_e - s)
Simplifying:
(4) dp_s = f(p) * p * a * (m * r - s)
where
f(p): a factor denoting the proportion of active missionaries in the
society
(if we use an expanding circle as a metaphora, with the edge of
the circle
working as the conversion agent, the function f(p) =~ p^-0.5)
p: min(population of the society, population of environment)
a: scaling factor (basically the average rate of conversion * portion
of missionaries)
m: the society's urge to grow vs. the environment
r: its appeal to outsiders vs. environment's appeal to its members
s: suppression factor
Rules for growth of societies
-----------------------------
Of course, the equation (4) can not be taken as is. It only shows the
relevant
factors and their relations. Gamewise, this can be turned (e.g.) into
this:
membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion
mod - Suppression + Action mod)
where
Expansion mod = the society's urge to grow vs. the environment, or the
competitiveness
of the environment; includes the relative number of
missionaries in the
society (w.r.t. environment in general)
Conversion mod = the society's appeal to outsiders vs. environment's
appeal to
members of the society
Suppression = only used for illegal / criminal organizations -
involvement in the organization
carries a penalty all by itself
Action mod = result of the expansion action, typically based on
Resources, but may also
be based on some political determinant
Whenever the scope of the society, or some other important factor,
changes, the Expansion and Conversion mods need to be rechecked: the
environment
is constantly
evolving to take into account the expanding society. Even if the society
starts with
a Expansion+Conversion mod = +8, this is not going to hold for ever.
Of course, the stable point is when the expansion and conversion mods
(and suppression)
of all societies are equal.
Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * r_e,
or the
average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate per year).
Any suggestions?
Case Exquaestio
---------------
Exquaestio has a relatively aggressive expansionist outlook. Of course,
Free cities is quite a competitive environment, but still I'd say that
Exquestio has a +2 Expansion mod (for now).
Exquaestio's appeal (or "offering") on the other hand does not
essentially differ very much from what the others do. The way I see it,
the advantages of Exquaestio are in emphasis on Education (other's do
it, but usually for a lot of money) and low level of hierarchy (other
religions tend to be very hierarchical, deriving from the fact that top
of the structure is very
sharp).
All in all, a +1 Conversion mod, and mostly for the middle and lower
classes.
The last year's action changed this a bit. I'd like to interpret it as
answering a kind of social need for a religion that offers help,
knowledge and perhaps a bit of magic for the common man. As such, it
would not be much interest to the rich and powerful (except for
ideological reasons), but mainly appeal to lower middle class, who see
the need for knowledge, but have been excluded from it due to high
associated price. At the same time, Exquaestio has been manifestly able
to protect itself from the supernatural obstacles that its opponents
more or less openly have thrown to it. I think that should be a big
boost for the Conversion mod, raising it to +3 (for a short while at
least).
Now, I've experimented with the formula above a bit, and based on my
results, 7500 is way too small size for a religion that has been
actively spreading for about 10 years (and has not been too selective
about its members, either). I have to apologize for not really thinking
this through before, but I think that you should have at least 10x as
many members. Do you want to update the history, or just work up from
the current
situation
using the new rules?
BTW, using the numbers above (from 1->75000 in 10 years, with +3
Exp+Conv mod,
you get a value of 30 for a, or 30% missionary ratio times conversion
rate of 100/year).
juuso
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