Thanks Jefferson, its far clearer now, much appreciated. I guess you had to figure this out the hard way with the Exquaestio (I recall the discussion from a few months ago but didn't follow it closely). Regards, Ibrahim > -----Original Message----- > From: bounces@phoenyx.net [mailto:bounces@phoenyx.net] On Behalf Of > Jefferson > Sent: Thursday, January 20, 2005 10:33 AM > To: celandra@phoenyx.net > Subject: Re: [Cel] Millati expansion in Kaeir > > Ibrahim wrote: > > >>>Action 1: Millati evangelisation > >>> > >>>Results: (Normal: 0,0,0,+1,+1,+1,x,x,x,x) > > > > [Ib] OK, so after having read this twice now, I think I understand it. > My > > 5% is multiplied twice because of my +1 result. That give me the > 10.25%. > > > > The question though I have is is that 10.25 for the action in that > year, or > > is the base growth determined at the end of the action (10 year > action)? > > For example 5% multiplied by say 6 (maybe I will have +1,+1,+2,+2 at > the end > > of the 10 year action, just as an example)? > > > > This would come back to the earlier complaint about slow growth for > > evangelising religions? (30% growth over ten years giving an extra 2- > 3000 at > > best for a starting population of 4000) > > Let's go through this in detail. > > You have a starting organization size of 4,000. That gives you a > starting growth rate of 20% (2,000 to 20,000 range). > > Normally, organization growth is not a strategic action. I don't know > what the result of the strategic action is supposed to be. (General > acceptance in Kaeir? Separation from other Millati?) > > Treating the above results as growth: > > +0: 4,000 * 1.2 = 4,800 > +0: 4,800 * 1.2 = 5,760 > +0: 5,760 * 1.2 = 6,912 > +1: 6,912 * 1.2 * 1.2 = 9,953 > +1: 9,953 * 1.2 * 1.2 = 14,333 > +1: 14,333 * 1.2 * 1.2 = 20,639 > > So, with the sixth action you pass the 20,000 mark and your base > expansion drops to 10%. Your population has grown 500% in six years. > (Growth past a breakpoint should probably be halved, making the last > number 20,320, but that's not an established rule.) > > However, this is complicated by two factors. > > First, failures are not recorded above. Failures normally divide by the > growth rate. If your first growth action was a failure (-1) your > organization's size would be reduced to 4,000 / 1.2 = 3,333. (And losses > past a breakpoint should probably be _doubled_, but, as above, this > isn't an established rule.) > > Second, you are doing this as a strategic action. There are undoubtedly > side effects from whatever the purpose of the strategic action as a > whole is, but I don't know what they would be. > > Now, let's suppose your last four results are +1, +1, +2, +2, and that > you don't have any failures. > > +1: 20,639 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 24,973 > +1: 24,973 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 30,218 > +2: 30,218 * 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 40,220 > +2: 40,220 * 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 53,533 > > For an average growth rate of 30% per year over 10 years. > > Jefferson (Exquaestio) > http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------- > To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net. ================================ Confidentiality Statement and Disclaimer ================================ This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and contains information that is privileged and confidential. If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message. Thank you. ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
