At 11:30 PM -0600 11/23/2003, Shane Knysh wrote:
>Right now I think the industry is in slow decline. There are a lot 
>of smaller companies
>producing product, but at smaller prices. The flagships are 
>shrinking, offering less and
>less.

In the vernacular of marketing we speak of market cycles. A quick overview:

Market Development Phase
Sales are low overall. Unit prices are high because production is too 
low to benefit from volume effects. Distribution is limited to a few 
channels. Product features are in a state of flux. There is little 
competition. The market has poor capitalization overall.

Market Expansion Phase
There is a rapid increase in sales and distribution. Competition 
increases. Products boast major new features. Prices begin to decline

Market Turbulence Phase
Market growth begins to slow. Products become more difficult to 
differentiate and are sold based on ancillary features. The number of 
distribution channels are reduced as margins shrink.

Market Maturity Phase
Prices are at the lowest the market can support. Competitive ranking 
is stable, with only a handful having significant market share.

Market Decline Phase
The total market size begins to decline. Product lines become limited 
or consolidated. Prices decline as competitors make last-ditch 
efforts before abandoning the market.

That's a fairly rough sketch, but it captures the gist. I'd have to 
agree that the RPG market has reached at least the later stages of 
maturity.

This doesn't mean that full-swing market decline is inevitable. By 
fundamentally redefining the product it is still possible to fuel 
market growth. However, this would involve changing more than just 
the setting or rules of an RPG system. Someone needs to redefine the 
"user experience" to make table-top RPGs relevant to a new 
demographic.

I haven't played in several years now, but I dip my fingers into 
industry news from time to time to take the pulse. Every once in a 
while I think about what could be done to change the experience of 
the people sitting around a gaming table (short of going electronic 
or LARP). I have to admit I haven't been able to dream up anything 
that might result in a decent business plan.

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