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Celandra is a game in which the players take the roles of societies, rather than playing individual characters. The players will invent a society with its culture and heritage, and will guide its development and interaction with the world. Emphasis will be be placed on developing a detailed history of Celandra, along with myths and legends.
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AndrewJanssen
Andrew Janssen

Tue

Nov 11
2003

04:00Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

I think all of us who play in Qaiyore could use a reminder that
civilization is for all intents and purposes *impossible* without
agriculture. Using some figures I pulled out of the Quest RPG's World
Book(a world design manual), I've put together a few spreadsheets. One
calculates farm and pasture acreages from the terrains in a society's
borders, and isn't really relevant to Celandra. The other spreadsheet,
after you enter values for calorie consumption(I used a 2,000
Calorie/day diet), nutritional value(30,000 Calories/bushel), farm
fertility, farmer productivity(5 farmers per 40 acres), and national
population, will calculate how much grain would be required to feed
that population, how much farm acreage will be needed, how many farmers
will be needed, and what percent of the total population will be
farmers.

[Caveat: I make a *lot* of simplifying assumptions in what comes next.]

Interestingly, the key figure is farm fertility. For a given value of
fertility, the percent of the population who *must* be farmers is
constant. For instance, if the average harvest in a society is 12
bushels/acre, a *minimum* of 25.35% of that society's population *must*
be farmers, or the society will have to import food in quantity. I've
run the numbers for Cedonia, which has a population of about 3 million,
with very fertile soil(18 bushels/acre). At least 507,000 of those
three million need to be farmers, or 16.9% of the population, and a
minimum of 6,337 sq. miles, or .5% of Cedonia's total land area needs
to be given over to farms. Realistically, of course, there would be
more farms and farmers than that, because of the need to allow for poor
harvests and building a surplus for storage or export, and because the
farmers wouldn't just grow wheat, there would be animal herds as well,
and that eats up much more land.

The numbers for Mir are also interesting. Mir has about 2 million
people packed into an island with an area 6% that of Cedonia (~75,000
sq. miles v. ~1.18 million sq. miles), but it has a comparable soil
fertility(18 bushels/acre). Mir needs a minimum of 338,000 farmers
working 4,225 sq. miles of farmland to feed its population. Again, a
minimum 16.9% of the people must farm, but Mir needs a minimum of 5.6%
of its total land area to be under cultivation, and more than that if
it wants an agricultural surplus. Of course, in Mir's case, much of its
people's calories come from fish, but they still need farmers; it takes
nearly 1.5 million fishermen to catch enough fish to feed 2 million
people.

Note that those figures for the amount of farmland needed are taken as
a percentage of *total* area. The amount of *arable* land available
will be rather less than that. Note also that I'm assuming everyone's
eatinf 2,000 calories per day. The ruling classes and the military are
going to want more food, and so that requires more land, food, and
farmers. 

Now, one last thing before I let y'all recover from the math I've been
throwing at you. Based on the scale attached to the Qaiyore map, I've
calculated the land areas of Mir and Cedonia, as you can see above. I
then figured average population density for the two countries. Mir has
an average of 26 people per sq. mile; Cedonia has an average of 2.5
people per sq. mile. Now, obviously, people don't spread themselves out
evenly like that, but the numbers suggest that Cedonia is desperately
underpopulated relative to its land area, with nearly all the people
concentrated into the Imperial River baisin and the Gulf of Gomel
coast.
Because of this, I think when the Cedonian Civil War ends, Cedonia's
primary orientation of Conquest may need to change to Equilibrium,
giving the country a chance to recover from the Sinari War and the
Civil War. Cedonia won't have the resources for foreign adventures for
some time.

Andrew

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Iso88591Qibrahim
=?iso-8859-1?q?i?=

Wed

Nov 12
2003

03:28Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

Andrew,
 
Can you upload the spreadsheets to the Qaiyore website at phoenyx?  If you don't know how, take a look at the Wiki stuff. its pretty simple.
 
sounds good though.
 
Ibrahim Underwood

Andrew Janssen  wrote:
I think all of us who play in Qaiyore could use a reminder that
civilization is for all intents and purposes *impossible* without
agriculture. Using some figures I pulled out of the Quest RPG's World
Book(a world design manual), I've put together a few spreadsheets. One
calculates farm and pasture acreages from the terrains in a society's
borders, and isn't really relevant to Celandra. The other spreadsheet,
after you enter values for calorie consumption(I used a 2,000
Calorie/day diet), nutritional value(30,000 Calories/bushel), farm
fertility, farmer productivity(5 farmers per 40 acres), and national
population, will calculate how much grain would be required to feed
that population, how much farm acreage will be needed, how many farmers
will be needed, and what percent of the total population will be
farmers.

[Caveat: I make a *lot* of simplifying assumptions in what comes next.]

Interestingly, the key figure is farm fertility. For a given value of
fertility, the percent of the population who *must* be farmers is
constant. For instance, if the average harvest in a society is 12
bushels/acre, a *minimum* of 25.35% of that society's population *must*
be farmers, or the society will have to import food in quantity. I've
run the numbers for Cedonia, which has a population of about 3 million,
with very fertile soil(18 bushels/acre). At least 507,000 of those
three million need to be farmers, or 16.9% of the population, and a
minimum of 6,337 sq. miles, or .5% of Cedonia's total land area needs
to be given over to farms. Realistically, of course, there would be
more farms and farmers than that, because of the need to allow for poor
harvests and building a surplus for storage or export, and because the
farmers wouldn't just grow wheat, there would be animal herds as well,
and that eats up much more land.

The numbers for Mir are also interesting. Mir has about 2 million
people packed into an island with an area 6% that of Cedonia (~75,000
sq. miles v. ~1.18 million sq. miles), but it has a comparable soil
fertility(18 bushels/acre). Mir needs a minimum of 338,000 farmers
working 4,225 sq. miles of farmland to feed its population. Again, a
minimum 16.9% of the people must farm, but Mir needs a minimum of 5.6%
of its total land area to be under cultivation, and more than that if
it wants an agricultural surplus. Of course, in Mir's case, much of its
people's calories come from fish, but they still need farmers; it takes
nearly 1.5 million fishermen to catch enough fish to feed 2 million
people.

Note that those figures for the amount of farmland needed are taken as
a percentage of *total* area. The amount of *arable* land available
will be rather less than that. Note also that I'm assuming everyone's
eatinf 2,000 calories per day. The ruling classes and the military are
going to want more food, and so that requires more land, food, and
farmers. 

Now, one last thing before I let y'all recover from the math I've been
throwing at you. Based on the scale attached to the Qaiyore map, I've
calculated the land areas of Mir and Cedonia, as you can see above. I
then figured average population density for the two countries. Mir has
an average of 26 people per sq. mile; Cedonia has an average of 2.5
people per sq. mile. Now, obviously, people don't spread themselves out
evenly like that, but the numbers suggest that Cedonia is desperately
underpopulated relative to its land area, with nearly all the people
concentrated into the Imperial River baisin and the Gulf of Gomel
coast.
Because of this, I think when the Cedonian Civil War ends, Cedonia's
primary orientation of Conquest may need to change to Equilibrium,
giving the country a chance to recover from the Sinari War and the
Civil War. Cedonia won't have the resources for foreign adventures for
some time.

Andrew

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AndrewJanssen
Andrew Janssen

Wed

Nov 12
2003

05:50Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

I'll give it a try, but I want to see if I can't clean up the
presentation first. There are a few places in the spreadsheets,
especially in the first one, where I need to make some of the numbers
variable; when I created it, I did so for a specific purpose, so it
needs some editing to make it of general use.

The way the first spreadsheet works, you have to calculate the area in
square miles of your society, then figure out how many of those
sq.miles fall into certain categories: clear, wooded, river, hills,
rough, mountains, and swamp. Then, using preset proportions, the
spreadsheet calculates how many acres of farm-, pasture-, wood-, and
wasteland you have. The parts that need work are translating those
figures into potential food production, and then working from the
kiloCalories produced to farmers needed, workers in industry, and size
of army supportable. Quite complex.

The second spreadsheet sort of goes in reverse. For a given population
and level of farming technology/field fertility, it gives you a
quick-and-dirty ballpark figure as to the amount of food needed, amount
of farmers needed, and acres of farmable land required. That one will
require less work.

I'll look over the Wiki stuff and see about getting them on-line. My
only reservation is file format. I'm using Lotus 1-2-3 from 1997. I can
try saving in Excel format, but I'm not sure how well it'll work. And,
because I'm using an older version of 1-2-3, I can't import modern
Excel formatted files. Still, I *think* that the latest versions of
Microsoft Office *should* be backwards-compatible, but YMMV.

Andrew
--- Ibrahim Dughlas  wrote:
> Andrew,
>  
> Can you upload the spreadsheets to the Qaiyore website at phoenyx? 
> If you don't know how, take a look at the Wiki stuff. its pretty
> simple.
>  
> sounds good though.
>  
> Ibrahim Underwood
> 
> Andrew Janssen  wrote:
> I think all of us who play in Qaiyore could use a reminder that
> civilization is for all intents and purposes *impossible* without
> agriculture. Using some figures I pulled out of the Quest RPG's World
> Book(a world design manual), I've put together a few spreadsheets.
> One
> calculates farm and pasture acreages from the terrains in a society's
> borders, and isn't really relevant to Celandra. The other
> spreadsheet,
> after you enter values for calorie consumption(I used a 2,000
> Calorie/day diet), nutritional value(30,000 Calories/bushel), farm
> fertility, farmer productivity(5 farmers per 40 acres), and national
> population, will calculate how much grain would be required to feed
> that population, how much farm acreage will be needed, how many
> farmers
> will be needed, and what percent of the total population will be
> farmers.
> 
> [Caveat: I make a *lot* of simplifying assumptions in what comes
> next.]
> 
> Interestingly, the key figure is farm fertility. For a given value of
> fertility, the percent of the population who *must* be farmers is
> constant. For instance, if the average harvest in a society is 12
> bushels/acre, a *minimum* of 25.35% of that society's population
> *must*
> be farmers, or the society will have to import food in quantity. I've
> run the numbers for Cedonia, which has a population of about 3
> million,
> with very fertile soil(18 bushels/acre). At least 507,000 of those
> three million need to be farmers, or 16.9% of the population, and a
> minimum of 6,337 sq. miles, or .5% of Cedonia's total land area needs
> to be given over to farms. Realistically, of course, there would be
> more farms and farmers than that, because of the need to allow for
> poor
> harvests and building a surplus for storage or export, and because
> the
> farmers wouldn't just grow wheat, there would be animal herds as
> well,
> and that eats up much more land.
> 
> The numbers for Mir are also interesting. Mir has about 2 million
> people packed into an island with an area 6% that of Cedonia (~75,000
> sq. miles v. ~1.18 million sq. miles), but it has a comparable soil
> fertility(18 bushels/acre). Mir needs a minimum of 338,000 farmers
> working 4,225 sq. miles of farmland to feed its population. Again, a
> minimum 16.9% of the people must farm, but Mir needs a minimum of
> 5.6%
> of its total land area to be under cultivation, and more than that if
> it wants an agricultural surplus. Of course, in Mir's case, much of
> its
> people's calories come from fish, but they still need farmers; it
> takes
> nearly 1.5 million fishermen to catch enough fish to feed 2 million
> people.
> 
> Note that those figures for the amount of farmland needed are taken
> as
> a percentage of *total* area. The amount of *arable* land available
> will be rather less than that. Note also that I'm assuming everyone's
> eatinf 2,000 calories per day. The ruling classes and the military
> are
> going to want more food, and so that requires more land, food, and
> farmers. 
> 
> Now, one last thing before I let y'all recover from the math I've
> been
> throwing at you. Based on the scale attached to the Qaiyore map, I've
> calculated the land areas of Mir and Cedonia, as you can see above. I
> then figured average population density for the two countries. Mir
> has
> an average of 26 people per sq. mile; Cedonia has an average of 2.5
> people per sq. mile. Now, obviously, people don't spread themselves
> out
> evenly like that, but the numbers suggest that Cedonia is desperately
> underpopulated relative to its land area, with nearly all the people
> concentrated into the Imperial River baisin and the Gulf of Gomel
> coast.
> Because of this, I think when the Cedonian Civil War ends, Cedonia's
> primary orientation of Conquest may need to change to Equilibrium,
> giving the country a chance to recover from the Sinari War and the
> Civil War. Cedonia won't have the resources for foreign adventures
> for
> some time.
> 
> Andrew
> 
> __________________________________
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RulingNations
RulingNations

Wed

Nov 12
2003

03:30Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

Here's some historical perspective as well.

At the beginning of the 20th century the USA had over 90% of its population 
directly involved in agriculture.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the British Isles, the most 
industrialized area of the world to that point in time, had over 50% of its population 
directly involved in agriculture.

IIRC the state with the least population directly involved with agriculture 
(before the 20th century) was Venice (forget which period).  Venice, depending 
on how numbers are counted _still_ had between 10% and 80% of its population 
involved in agriculture. The large discrepancy depends on how the various 
venetian enclaves are counted and various historian's views of their exact 
composition.

------

However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be strongly 
affected by magic.  Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
the population numbers on the Quaiyore website.  I'd had the thought that 
perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so "everyday" that people 
don't even look on it as magic.  I haven't had a chance to check back on the 
website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what people think.  
Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important part in their 
agriculture.

Jefferson (Exquaestio)
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AndrewJanssen
Andrew Janssen

Wed

Nov 12
2003

06:07Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

--- RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
> Here's some historical perspective as well.
> 
> At the beginning of the 20th century the USA had over 90% of its
> population 
> directly involved in agriculture.
> 
> At the beginning of the 20th century, the British Isles, the most 
> industrialized area of the world to that point in time, had over 50%
> of its population 
> directly involved in agriculture.

The ruleset I used to design the spreadsheets also had rules for
determining how many people were employed in various levels of
industry(agricultural, support, and heavy). The proportion at the
lowest tech level was, for every 600,000 calories above the amount
required to feed the whole population, one person would be employed in
an agricultrally based industry, such as textiles ior tanning. For
every 2 agricultural industry workers, and for every 10 farmers, one
person is employed in a support industry, such as masonry, carpentry,
or blacksmithing. For every 5 workers in the first two levels of
industry, and for every 20 farmers, one person is employed in a heavy
industry, like munitions manufacture, smelting, or shipbuilding. Of
course, not everyone is employed, e.g. women, children, and the
retired; and even in this tech level you have service workers, like
priests, lawyers, doctors, mages, and the ruling class. Also, soldiers
are not counted in these figures--in the original ruleset, you needed
to figure who fell into which category of employment to calculate GNP
and a society's budget--and soldiers consume GNP rather than add to it.

I'll maybe try the Wiki features on Celandra's site and go into more
detail there--and try and find the original ruleset on line. It was a
free download, developed by a group at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison.

Andrew
> IIRC the state with the least population directly involved with
> agriculture 
> (before the 20th century) was Venice (forget which period).  Venice,
> depending 
> on how numbers are counted _still_ had between 10% and 80% of its
> population 
> involved in agriculture. The large discrepancy depends on how the
> various 
> venetian enclaves are counted and various historian's views of their
> exact 
> composition.
> 
> ------
> 
> However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be
> strongly 
> affected by magic.  Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my
> head around 
> the population numbers on the Quaiyore website.  I'd had the thought
> that 
> perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so "everyday"
> that people 
> don't even look on it as magic.  I haven't had a chance to check back
> on the 
> website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what people
> think.  
> Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important
> part in their 
> agriculture.
> 
> Jefferson (Exquaestio)
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
> To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.


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JuhaVesanto
juuso

Fri

Nov 14
2003

00:24Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

This is a very interesting discussion. :)

RulingNations@aol.com wrote:

>However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be strongly 
>affected by magic.
>
And fertilization/cultivation. I remember reading from somewhere (this 
is really vague...),
that after fertilization was started to be used in agriculture, the 
yeilds increased at a
rate of 3% per year. It ain't much per year. But in only 23 years, that 
will be double
the original productivity. Which is why I'm not too sure about that 
figure. But the fact
is that the yield on modern fields per area is HUGE compared to what it 
was in
the middle ages.

Now, as sufficiently advanced technology seems like magic...

>  Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
>the population numbers on the Quaiyore website.  
>
Don't bother. I don't think anyone has ever actually paid much attention
to the population figures. Maybe we should, though.

>I'd had the thought that 
>perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so "everyday" that people 
>don't even look on it as magic.  I haven't had a chance to check back on the 
>website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what people think.  
>Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important part in their 
>agriculture.
>
Probably.

juuso



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AndrewJanssen
Andrew Janssen

Fri

Nov 14
2003

01:37Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

Well, I've just finished putting together a cleaned-up spreadsheet for
making economic calculations, and I'll try Wikiing it to the website a
little later tonight, after one last check for hidden wonkiness.

--- Juha Vesanto  wrote:
> This is a very interesting discussion. :)
> 
> RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
> 
> >However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be
> strongly 
> >affected by magic.
> >
> And fertilization/cultivation. I remember reading from somewhere
> (this 
> is really vague...),
> that after fertilization was started to be used in agriculture, the 
> yeilds increased at a
> rate of 3% per year. It ain't much per year. But in only 23 years,
> that 
> will be double
> the original productivity. Which is why I'm not too sure about that 
> figure. But the fact
> is that the yield on modern fields per area is HUGE compared to what
> it 
> was in
> the middle ages.

The ruleset I used to make the spreadsheet allows for six levels of
technology(TL0-TL5). Interestingly, agricultural productivity rises at
a relatively constant rate until TL3, where the curve begins to turn
upward more sharply. TL3 is reached when a culture or society invents
the steam engine. The introduction of machinery allows one man to farm
more ground.

As an aside, while my spreadsheet allows for the full range of tech
levels, I don't think any Qaiyorean nation would have a TL greater than
2.

> Now, as sufficiently advanced technology seems like magic...
> 
> >  Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
> >the population numbers on the Quaiyore website.  
> >
> Don't bother. I don't think anyone has ever actually paid much
> attention
> to the population figures. Maybe we should, though.

I think the population figures may need revising. Like I said in an
earlier e-mail, my quick-and-dirty spreadsheet showed that Cedonia,
going by the website numbers, is very underpopulated, compared to its
land area. The website's figure of 3 million works out to a population
density of 2.6 people per square mile. My off-the-cuff estimate is that
15 to 17 million people might be a more reasonable number for a country
of Cedonia's size and technological development. I suspect that a lot
of the other countries have population/area mismatches, because the
current system uses the Size determinant for both area *AND*
population. We should separate Population Size from Land Area.

> >I'd had the thought that 
> >perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so "everyday"
> that people 
> >don't even look on it as magic.  I haven't had a chance to check
> back on the 
> >website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what
> people think.  
> >Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important
> part in their 
> >agriculture.
> >
> Probably.
>
> juuso
Also, since Mir is in the middle of the Midsea, they almost certainly
eat a lot of seafood. And there's probably a fair amount of
importation, also.

Andrew
  
> 
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
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Iso88591Qibrahim
=?iso-8859-1?q?i?=

Fri

Nov 14
2003

04:05Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

Andrew, 
 
Looks good, but a problem.  The economic spreadsheet does not seem to be able to take into account the sea as a focus for economic activity (though you could just include that under the "river" category).
 
cheers,
 
ibrahim underwood

Andrew Janssen  wrote:
Well, I've just finished putting together a cleaned-up spreadsheet for
making economic calculations, and I'll try Wikiing it to the website a
little later tonight, after one last check for hidden wonkiness.

--- Juha Vesanto wrote:
> This is a very interesting discussion. :)
> 
> RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
> 
> >However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be
> strongly 
> >affected by magic.
> >
> And fertilization/cultivation. I remember reading from somewhere
> (this 
> is really vague...),
> that after fertilization was started to be used in agriculture, the 
> yeilds increased at a
> rate of 3% per year. It ain't much per year. But in only 23 years,
> that 
> will be double
> the original productivity. Which is why I'm not too sure about that 
> figure. But the fact
> is that the yield on modern fields per area is HUGE compared to what
> it 
> was in
> the middle ages.

The ruleset I used to make the spreadsheet allows for six levels of
technology(TL0-TL5). Interestingly, agricultural productivity rises at
a relatively constant rate until TL3, where the curve begins to turn
upward more sharply. TL3 is reached when a culture or society invents
the steam engine. The introduction of machinery allows one man to farm
more ground.

As an aside, while my spreadsheet allows for the full range of tech
levels, I don't think any Qaiyorean nation would have a TL greater than
2.

> Now, as sufficiently advanced technology seems like magic...
> 
> > Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
> >the population numbers on the Quaiyore website. 
> >
> Don't bother. I don't think anyone has ever actually paid much
> attention
> to the population figures. Maybe we should, though.

I think the population figures may need revising. Like I said in an
earlier e-mail, my quick-and-dirty spreadsheet showed that Cedonia,
going by the website numbers, is very underpopulated, compared to its
land area. The website's figure of 3 million works out to a population
density of 2.6 people per square mile. My off-the-cuff estimate is that
15 to 17 million people might be a more reasonable number for a country
of Cedonia's size and technological development. I suspect that a lot
of the other countries have population/area mismatches, because the
current system uses the Size determinant for both area *AND*
population. We should separate Population Size from Land Area.

> >I'd had the thought that 
> >perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so "everyday"
> that people 
> >don't even look on it as magic. I haven't had a chance to check
> back on the 
> >website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what
> people think. 
> >Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important
> part in their 
> >agriculture.
> >
> Probably.
>
> juuso
Also, since Mir is in the middle of the Midsea, they almost certainly
eat a lot of seafood. And there's probably a fair amount of
importation, also.

Andrew

> 
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
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AndrewJanssen
Andrew Janssen

Fri

Nov 14
2003

11:04Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

Well, actually, you can't include the sea under the river category. The
reason I didn't include the sea in the first version is because it
would have involved too many wild-assed guesses. Admittedly, most of
the spreadsheet involves guesses and estimations, but they can be
justified. 

The problem with the sea is this: the ruleset I was using simply states
that one fisherman produces 1,000 kCalories of seafood per year at Tech
Level 0, which is simple enough. The problem, which I haven't found a
satisfactory solution for yet, is how many fishermen is realistic,
given that there are only so many fish in the sea? In the ruleset, it
says that the game master should assign a fishing productivity to each
area of the ocean around a society, and work from there, but I'd like
to have numbers based on something other than thin air.

Still, if you like, I can work up a version where you can just enter
*your* best guess as to the number of fishermen in your society. Just
as an aside, at TL0 it would take three fishermen to produce enough
food for four people, including themselves.

Andrew
--- Ibrahim Dughlas  wrote:
> Andrew, 
>  
> Looks good, but a problem.  The economic spreadsheet does not seem to
> be able to take into account the sea as a focus for economic activity
> (though you could just include that under the "river" category).
>  
> cheers,
>  
> ibrahim underwood
> 
> Andrew Janssen  wrote:
> Well, I've just finished putting together a cleaned-up spreadsheet
> for
> making economic calculations, and I'll try Wikiing it to the website
> a
> little later tonight, after one last check for hidden wonkiness.
> 
> --- Juha Vesanto wrote:
> > This is a very interesting discussion. :)
> > 
> > RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
> > 
> > >However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be
> > strongly 
> > >affected by magic.
> > >
> > And fertilization/cultivation. I remember reading from somewhere
> > (this 
> > is really vague...),
> > that after fertilization was started to be used in agriculture, the
> 
> > yeilds increased at a
> > rate of 3% per year. It ain't much per year. But in only 23 years,
> > that 
> > will be double
> > the original productivity. Which is why I'm not too sure about that
> 
> > figure. But the fact
> > is that the yield on modern fields per area is HUGE compared to
> what
> > it 
> > was in
> > the middle ages.
> 
> The ruleset I used to make the spreadsheet allows for six levels of
> technology(TL0-TL5). Interestingly, agricultural productivity rises
> at
> a relatively constant rate until TL3, where the curve begins to turn
> upward more sharply. TL3 is reached when a culture or society invents
> the steam engine. The introduction of machinery allows one man to
> farm
> more ground.
> 
> As an aside, while my spreadsheet allows for the full range of tech
> levels, I don't think any Qaiyorean nation would have a TL greater
> than
> 2.
> 
> > Now, as sufficiently advanced technology seems like magic...
> > 
> > > Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
> > >the population numbers on the Quaiyore website. 
> > >
> > Don't bother. I don't think anyone has ever actually paid much
> > attention
> > to the population figures. Maybe we should, though.
> 
> I think the population figures may need revising. Like I said in an
> earlier e-mail, my quick-and-dirty spreadsheet showed that Cedonia,
> going by the website numbers, is very underpopulated, compared to its
> land area. The website's figure of 3 million works out to a
> population
> density of 2.6 people per square mile. My off-the-cuff estimate is
> that
> 15 to 17 million people might be a more reasonable number for a
> country
> of Cedonia's size and technological development. I suspect that a lot
> of the other countries have population/area mismatches, because the
> current system uses the Size determinant for both area *AND*
> population. We should separate Population Size from Land Area.
> 
> > >I'd had the thought that 
> > >perhaps magic is commonly used in agriculture, but is so
> "everyday"
> > that people 
> > >don't even look on it as magic. I haven't had a chance to check
> > back on the 
> > >website to see if this fits, but I'll toss it out and see what
> > people think. 
> > >Certainly in the case of Mir magic undoubtedly plays an important
> > part in their 
> > >agriculture.
> > >
> > Probably.
> >
> > juuso
> Also, since Mir is in the middle of the Midsea, they almost certainly
> eat a lot of seafood. And there's probably a fair amount of
> importation, also.
> 
> Andrew
> 
> > 
> > 
> > ----------------------------------------------------------------
> > To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
> 
> 
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RaFry
Robert Fry

Sat

Nov 15
2003

02:49Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Janssen" 
To: 
Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2003 3:00 PM
Subject: [Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics


> I think all of us who play in Qaiyore could use a reminder that
> civilization is for all intents and purposes *impossible* without
> agriculture. Using some figures I pulled out of the Quest RPG's World
> Book(a world design manual), I've put together a few spreadsheets. One
> calculates farm and pasture acreages from the terrains in a society's
> borders, and isn't really relevant to Celandra. The other spreadsheet,
> after you enter values for calorie consumption(I used a 2,000
> Calorie/day diet), nutritional value(30,000 Calories/bushel), farm
> fertility, farmer productivity(5 farmers per 40 acres), and national
> population, will calculate how much grain would be required to feed
> that population, how much farm acreage will be needed, how many farmers
> will be needed, and what percent of the total population will be
> farmers.
>

I just wanted to add that, for the Ka'Shari, I've assumed something similar
to what is said here. When I assigned population figures to the Fleets, I
put about 2/3 of them as primarily occupied with food at any time (whether
through trade or fishing), although exactly who is doing the food production
varies with time. With the population figures I'm using, that leaves just
1800 or so for non-agricultural professions, and a sizeable fraction of
those are occupied with shipbuilding and other things that are indespensible
to the Ka'Shari culture (i.e. remembering the 'lore'). This leaves a small
number who can concentrate on retaining things like specialized or magickal
lores.

Another book that might be of interest is one titled 'Guns, Germs, and
Steel', which tries to address the causes behind Europeans being the ones
who ended up with the culture that gained the highest level of technology
and dominance over so many others. Obviously, one volume can't completely
address such a broad issue, but as a popularization, it's fascinating. (It
also implies that any group which is unable to support a large population
(>100,000 or so) is doomed to eventually lose whatever technology it
currently has, although the rate of loss responds to a variety of factors).
Anyway, adding magic into the mix (especially when beings from the Dreaming
can sometimes provide for revolutionary changes in thought styles) changes
all of those assumptions.

As an aside, once the Ka'Shari encounter that new, /growing/ faith, they'll
no doubt want to trade techniques for proselytizing. I don't think going
door to door and asking everybody if they've heard of the Goddess yet and do
they mind if we leave them a couple of magazines to read would quite do the
job.

  Bob

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RulingNations
RulingNations

Sat

Nov 15
2003

19:04Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

In a message dated 11/13/03 5:24:38 PM Mountain Standard Time, juuso@iki.fi 
writes:
>RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
>  
>>However, we should also be aware that land productivity can be strongly 
>>affected by magic.
>
>And fertilization/cultivation. I remember reading from somewhere (this
>is really vague...), that after fertilization was started to be used in
>agriculture, the yeilds increased at a rate of 3% per year. It ain't
>much per year. But in only 23 years, that will be double the original
>productivity. Which is why I'm not too sure about that figure. But the
>fact is that the yield on modern fields per area is HUGE compared to
>what it was in the middle ages.

This is part of the whole "Green Revolution" that started in the 1920s.
In addition to chemical fertilizers, it also included hybrid grains,
pesticides, and motorized farm equipment. I think the 3% per year figure
you gave doesn't represent improvements in the land so much as
improvement in the actual fertilizer used (and which stabilized in the
late 1980s). I seem to remember that fields in Africa that changed from
traditional cultivation to modern methods in the late 1980s could see
their production increased by over 100 times. Another factor that could
greatly improve crop yields, but hasn't been used much so far, is
genetic engineering.

>Now, as sufficiently advanced technology seems like magic...
>  
>>Personally, I've been having trouble wrapping my head around 
>>the population numbers on the Quaere website.  
>
>Don't bother. I don't think anyone has ever actually paid much attention
>to the population figures. Maybe we should, though.

Definitely! In socioeconomic based games population is probably THE
most important factor.

Jefferson (Exquaestio)
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/
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RulingNations
RulingNations

Sat

Nov 15
2003

19:21Z

[Cel] [World] Thoughts on Economics

In a message dated 11/14/03 4:06:29 AM Mountain Standard Time, 
andrewdj54701@yahoo.com writes:

>  The problem with the sea is this: the ruleset I was using simply states
>  that one fisherman produces 1,000 kCalories of seafood per year at Tech
>  Level 0, which is simple enough. The problem, which I haven't found a
>  satisfactory solution for yet, is how many fishermen is realistic,
>  given that there are only so many fish in the sea?

Generally, the limit isn't the number of fish in the sea, but the amount of 
fresh water available.  Of course if water purification or general 
transportation is sufficiently advanced you may run into problems with overfishing, but 
consider that it only started happening on earth in the 1960s.  (Certain species 
may be susceptible sooner, of course, but I'm talking about fishing in 
general.)

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/
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