In a message dated 4/23/04 12:18:47 AM Mountain Daylight Time, juuso@iki.fi writes: >RulingNations@aol.com wrote: > >>I just noticed that in 1441 the base difficulty of Exquaestio's expansion >>went from Easy (+1) to Normal (0). What was the reason for this? > >You have grown bigger. The bigger you are, the more effort is needed to >become even bigger. Notice that the society size steps are not linear >but exponential. OK. This is extremely important to me, so let's discuss expansion in detail. Currently (1443-1444) Exquaestio has a population of 3328 which is a scope of very small. For converts they are drawing upon a population of 9,500,000+ which is scope fair. Since a larger population means a reduction in conversion chances, the three step difference in population should give them a +3 to opportunities to convert, correct? To aide in conversion they have a Legendary religious sophistication (+4) and are able to deal with all questions that might arise. They also have a craft to support this conversion (+1). The people doing the converting are culturally similar, so there aren't really any cultural mods involved here. Opposing this is the how well a potential convert's current religion deals with questions (religious sophistication averages +1 and is treated as a negative for -1) and how open he has been taught to be to religious ideas (religious tolerance on average -2). So far Exquaestio has not met any organized opposition from governments or religions, so those can be considered a wash (0). No background factors have been described, so that's also a wash (0). So, where does the -5 come from to make Exquaestio's chances of conversion normal (0), and how come I don't see other player's actions having the same factor? Jefferson (Exquaestio) http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote: > Currently (1443-1444) Exquaestio has a population of 3328 which is a > scope of very small. For converts they are drawing upon a population of > 9,500,000+ which is scope fair. Since a larger population means a > reduction in conversion chances, the three step difference in population > should give them a +3 to opportunities to convert, correct? No. They are definetly not in contact with 9.5M people. I'd say they are more likely to be in contact with about 200000 people. Most of which have "thanks, but no thanks, we're prefectly happy with our current religious practices, unless you have some interesting special offers?" -attitude. More than that 200 thousand have heard of them, but to make a convert, you have be in regular and frequent contact. > To aide in conversion they have a Legendary religious sophistication > (+4) and are able to deal with all questions that might arise. They also > have a craft to support this conversion (+1). The people doing the > converting are culturally similar, so there aren't really any cultural > mods involved here. Well, I'm mentally giving you a +1 for the conversion because of that orientation. > Opposing this is the how well a potential convert's current religion > deals with questions (religious sophistication averages +1 and is > treated as a negative for -1) and how open he has been taught to be to > religious ideas (religious tolerance on average -2). IMHO, the people in Celandra (and Free Cities in particular) do not choose their religion based on what kind of answers does it offer, but based on what kind of benefits do they get. Ok, there are idealistic and more philosophically oriented people who really hook into the belief structure and the ideals - and these are the best kind of converts - but they are a minority. Religious sophistication is a factor of course; it's roughtly speaking the frills around the basic idea; but it's not a direct factor. > So far Exquaestio has not met any organized opposition from governments > or religions, so those can be considered a wash (0). It's Free Cities you are operating in. There's no organized operation against Exquestio, but that's mainly because the whole Free Cities is a complex mixture of organizations and small societies, each fighting against each other. It is definetly not a religious vacuum you are in. On the other hand, the religious diversity in Free Cities is quite high (this is IMO; it seems that most determinants are missing for Free Cities), so changing from one religion to another is not an issue, as it might be in other areas. > No background factors have been described, so that's also a wash (0). > > So, where does the -5 come from to make Exquaestio's chances of > conversion normal (0), and how come I don't see other player's actions > having the same factor? Nobody is else growing as fast (ratio-wise) as you are. You started from scratch 8 years ago. Do you have any real-life examples of religious expansion that you aspire to? What kind of expansion rate have you envisioned for the Exquestion? One problem might be that we really don't have any written-down rules on society expansion. Care to propose any? juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 5/20/04 9:46:08 PM Mountain Daylight Time, juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: >RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >>Currently (1443-1444) Exquaestio has a population of 3328 which is a >>scope of very small. For converts they are drawing upon a population of >>9,500,000+ which is scope fair. Since a larger population means a >>reduction in conversion chances, the three step difference in population >>should give them a +3 to opportunities to convert, correct? > >No. They are definitely not in contact with 9.5M people. I never said they were. They are, however, active in a region with that population. >I'd say they are more likely to be in contact with about 200,000 >people. Most of which have "thanks, but no thanks, we're perfectly >happy with our current religious practices, unless you have some >interesting special offers?" -attitude. More than that 200 thousand >have heard of them, but to make a convert, you have be in regular and >frequent contact. Yes. But that's already accounted for by the percentile growth rules used. Growth is already limited by the existing population. Since Exquaestio is widely distributed, efforts won't be much duplicated until they reach 1/9 (call it 10%) of the population. >>To aide in conversion they have a Legendary religious sophistication >>(+4) and are able to deal with all questions that might arise. They also >>have a craft to support this conversion (+1). The people doing the >>converting are culturally similar, so there aren't really any cultural >>mods involved here. > >Well, I'm mentally giving you a +1 for the conversion because of that >orientation. > >>Opposing this is the how well a potential convert's current religion >>deals with questions (religious sophistication averages +1 and is >>treated as a negative for -1) and how open he has been taught to be to >>religious ideas (religious tolerance on average -2). > >IMHO, the people in Celandra (and Free Cities in particular) do not >choose their religion based on what kind of answers does it offer, but >based on what kind of benefits do they get. OK, there are idealistic >and more philosophically oriented people who really hook into the >belief structure and the ideals -- and these are the best kind of >converts -- but they are a minority. Religious sophistication is >a factor of course; it's roughly speaking the frills around the basic >idea; but it's not a direct factor. So what is the direct factor and what attribute is it based on? To my mind if religious participation is based on benefits then part of religious sophistication is how well the benefits of particular religion are presented. >>So far Exquaestio has not met any organized opposition from governments >>or religions, so those can be considered a wash (0). > >It's Free Cities you are operating in. There's no organized >operation against Exquaestio, but that's mainly because the whole Free >Cities is a complex mixture of organizations and small societies, each >fighting against each other. It is definitely not a religious vacuum >you are in. On the other hand, the religious diversity in Free Cities >is quite high (this is IMO; it seems that most determinants are missing >for Free Cities), so changing from one religion to another is not an >issue, as it might be in other areas. > >>No background factors have been described, so that's also a wash (0). >> >>So, where does the -5 come from to make Exquaestio's chances of >>conversion normal (0), and how come I don't see other player's actions >>having the same factor? > >Nobody is else growing as fast (ratio-wise) as you are. You started from >scratch 8 years ago. Do you have any real-life examples of religious >expansion that you aspire to? The early years of Buddhism and Islam are well documented. In the second decade of their existence they were able to field _gatherings of thousands_ of believers. That wouldn't have been possible for Exquaestio even before you lowered the conversion rate. >What kind of expansion rate have you envisioned for the Exquaestio? Something that would put me on a rough parity with other players within a year of game play. >One problem might be that we really don't have any written-down >rules on society expansion. Care to propose any? I thought that's what we were doing? Jefferson (Exquaestio) http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
--- RulingNations@aol.com wrote: > In a message dated 5/20/04 9:46:08 PM Mountain Daylight Time, > juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: > >RulingNations@aol.com wrote:> >>No background factors have been described, so that's also a wash > (0). > >> > >>So, where does the -5 come from to make Exquaestio's chances of > >>conversion normal (0), and how come I don't see other player's > actions > >>having the same factor? > > > >Nobody is else growing as fast (ratio-wise) as you are. You started > from > >scratch 8 years ago. Do you have any real-life examples of religious > >expansion that you aspire to? > > The early years of Buddhism and Islam are well documented. In the > second > decade of their existence they were able to field _gatherings of > thousands_ of believers. That wouldn't have been possible for > Exquaestio > even before you lowered the conversion rate. Well, I can't speak to how Buddhism managed to spread so quickly, although at a guess I'd say that it filled a spiritual need, but Islam's spread was considerably helped by the Byzantine Emperor Justinian I's insistence on Orthodoxy. Justinian was trying to reconquer what had been the Western Roman Empire, and in an attempt to win the support of the Roman Pope, he ruthlessly supressed all heresies. Unfortunately for Justinian, Egypt, the breadbasket of the empire, was predominantly Monophysite; while Syria, which guarded the frontiers with Persia and Arabia, was predominantly Nestorian. Justinian's alienation of Syria and Egypt made their people more than willing to switch political and religious allegiance. There were other factors, too, such as the Arabs' military doctrine; the paranoia of Byzantine Emperors, which often resulted in the deaths of the most able Byzantine officers; and the methods the Arabs used to encourage conversion of subject populations. For what it's worth, given the Celandran-in-the-street's attitude to religion, if Exquaestio wants to increase its rate of expansion, they must first clearly elucidate the benefits they can provide, and secondly, they must hitch their wagon to those in power. As I said, part of what helped Islam spread was that it wasn't just a religious movement, it was political and military also. Christianity didn't really take off until Constantine the Great converted and imposed the religion on the Roman Empire. If Exquaestio wants to increase their numbers, the best way would be, I think, to target the power players in the Free Cities, and work from the top down, rather than the bottom up. Andrew > Jefferson (Exquaestio) > http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ > ---------------------------------------------------------------- > To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger. http://messenger.yahoo.com/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 5/26/04 1:25:52 AM Mountain Daylight Time, andrewdj54701@yahoo.com writes: > If Exquaestio wants to increase their numbers, the best way would be, I > think, to target the power players in the Free Cities, and work from > the top down, rather than the bottom up. And how are they to do that without an existing power base? Without a power base the power players will deservedly ignore Exquaestio even if they sympathize with the principles of the religion. IF I don't have to spend all my actions these next few turns on simple expansion you'll see a number of moves in this direction in the Junder region, in which Exquaestio is finally sufficiently numerous to appear as a creditable power. Jefferson http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
Hi First of all, sorry that I haven't answered this before. For the couple of last weeks I've had to dedicate my evenings to work, and have had no time to spend on hobbies. Secondly, I have to agree with Andrew. At least the spread of islam is not a typical, but an extreme, example of the spread of a religion. RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >> If Exquaestio wants to increase their numbers, the best way would be, I >> think, to target the power players in the Free Cities, and work from >> the top down, rather than the bottom up. > > And how are they to do that without an existing power base? Use your fudge points. The game system tries to emulate the typical way historical events go, and depends on extreme dice rolls for the events that really break historical continuity from the expected pattern. Unfortunately for the players, the high rolls (+4...) are very rare. For this reason exactly, double/triple/.. actions and the fudge points allow the players to tweak the chances to their favour in crucial actions. You have 9 fp:s. By making a double action (+1), and using 8 fp:s (for a roll of ++++, and possibility for an open-ended result), you can ensure a net result of at least +5 minus the difficulity. Spend that on an action to target the upper levels of the society, and you have the power base. It would not hurt if you had something to offer for the rulers also (protestant christianity gained large support among the ruling class as soon as they realized that it gave them an excuse to rip off the monasteries). juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >>What kind of expansion rate have you envisioned for the Exquaestio? > > Something that would put me on a rough parity with other players within > a year of game play. On par with whom? Mir and Cedonia are heartlands of former empires with millions of inhabitants. Or Ka'shari, a small nation on ships with a total population of about 6000. There's already a population difference of 1000 x. Hmmm... if this is central to your idea of Exquestio, I suppose it would not hurt to let it grow faster than so far. There's Millat Shanari starting to gain support in the north, so it might be a time for a renewal of the patterns of religion around Midsea. They have been stagnant for the past two millenia, anyway. juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 5/30/04 11:09:43 AM Mountain Daylight Time, juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: >Secondly, I have to agree with Andrew. At least the spread of Islam is >not a typical, but an extreme, example of the spread of a religion. Then what would you consider typical? What historical religion, relevant to Exquaestio's situation, has had increased difficulty gaining converts simply due to their growth? On our world there are five "first tier" religions: Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, and Taoism. Of those, only Buddhism's and Islam's origins are sufficiently well documented to serve in world design. Of the second tier religions I'm familiar with only two: Communism and Voudoun. The origins of Voudoun are not documented, and the origins of Communism have no relevance being based on communications that don't exist on Celandra. Shamanism and neo-paganism are both undocumented. Now, I don't have any information about the Unification Church, so they may be what you are looking at, but, if so, I need to know so I can do some research. Local and ethnic religions like Judaism and Sikhism have no relevance to the existing circumstances. Religions based on personally following a particular religious leader are also irrelevant. So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion and you're going to have to read my mind." >RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >>>If Exquaestio wants to increase their numbers, the best way would be, I >>>think, to target the power players in the Free Cities, and work from >>>the top down, rather than the bottom up. >> >>And how are they to do that without an existing power base? > >Use your fudge points. The game system tries to emulate the typical way >historical events go, and depends on extreme dice rolls for the events >that really break historical continuity from the expected pattern. >Unfortunately for the players, the high rolls (+4...) are very rare. For >this reason exactly, double/triple/.. actions and the fudge points allow >the players to tweak the chances to their favor in crucial actions. Let me get this straight. You think that I should use Fudge Points to raise an Epic (-4) task? I apologize for the rudeness, but it would be stupid to waste Fudge Points that way. >You have 9 FP:s. By making a double action (+1), and using 8 FP:s (for >a roll of ++++, and possibility for an open-ended result), you can >ensure a net result of at least +5 minus the difficulty. Spend that >on an action to target the upper levels of the society, and you have >the power base. >It would not hurt if you had something to offer for the >rulers also (Protestant Christianity gained large support among the >ruling class as soon as they realized that it gave them an excuse to rip >off the monasteries). I have stated and restated what Exquaestio offers. Since those statements were ignored I have had no choice except to use actions to state what those offers are. Since by decreasing the rate of growth you have given me fewer actions those definitions come extremely slowly. Jefferson (Exquaestio) http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >In a message dated 5/30/04 11:09:43 AM Mountain Daylight Time, >juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: > > > >>Secondly, I have to agree with Andrew. At least the spread of Islam is >>not a typical, but an extreme, example of the spread of a religion. >> >> > >Then what would you consider typical? What historical religion, relevant >to Exquaestio's situation, has had increased difficulty gaining converts >simply due to their growth? > > > I think that a part of the problem is that the existing rules for societal expansion are designed for nation-states, not religions or other NGOs. Nation-states do find it harder to grow as they grow; IIRC it's something like a logarithmic curve, starting out very quickly and then decelerating over time. With nations, one of the limits on growth is the speed of communication. As a society expands to occupy more and more area, the communications lag between the core and the fringe eventually reaches a point where the society becomes so large it fractures; witness the Roman Empire. There are other factors, of course, but communication lag is important. That's why all the great empires of history, with the notable exception of Pharonic Egypt and Imperial Russia, have been great road builders: good roads allow the rulers to project their power and communicate quickly. Egypt didn't build many roads because they used the Nile; as for Russia, the Tsars and the Soviets kept most of their roads unpaved because from their point of view, roads were not so much tools for internal control as they were pathways for invaders. Communication lag in our world has posed similar problems for religions: witness the factions and heresies of Christianity, and the change in Buddhism as one moves from India, to Nepal, to Tibet, to China, to Japan. However, at present, this communications lag should not be as much of a problem for Exquaestio, assuming they have a magical means of rapid communication. The reason why the current rules don't really work for describing Exquaestio's expansion is that they appear to assume that when a society grows in Scope, it's gaining members _and land_. Exquaestio is trying to gain members, but unless I've missed something, at the moment, you're almost exclusively working in the Free Cities, so you're not trying to grab land. In other words, for a nation, it's not the gaining of population that makes expansion in Scope harder the bigger a society already is; it's the acquiring of the land and resources to support the increase in population that makes the difficulty. So, since Exquaestio's newly recruited members are, presumably, still citizens of whichever Free City they live in, Exquaestio doesn't need to worry about supporting those new members as a nation would have to worry.>Local and ethnic religions like Judaism and Sikhism have no relevance to >the existing circumstances. Religions based on personally following a >particular religious leader are also irrelevant. > > > This may be a stupid question, but why are they irrelevant, exactly? >So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further >guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion >and you're going to have to read my mind." > > > Well, I don't know what Juuso thinks, but I'd say "Yes, there is no such thing as a typical religion." As far as the first tier are concerned, in every case, unique circumstances propelled them on to the world stage. For many of them, their success depended on the right person being in the right place at the right time. You can't say that "Such-and-so is a neccessary requirement for a religion to become great," because the role of chance is too great and cannot be ignored. The great religions all have unique stories; only in the little religions can you make predictions and generalizations. I may not be clear about this, but then, religion is a subject about which clarity is difficult. >>RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >> >> >>>>If Exquaestio wants to increase their numbers, the best way would be, I >>>>think, to target the power players in the Free Cities, and work from >>>>the top down, rather than the bottom up. >>>> >>>> >>>And how are they to do that without an existing power base? >>> >>> >> >>Use your fudge points. The game system tries to emulate the typical way >>historical events go, and depends on extreme dice rolls for the events >>that really break historical continuity from the expected pattern. >>Unfortunately for the players, the high rolls (+4...) are very rare. For >>this reason exactly, double/triple/.. actions and the fudge points allow >>the players to tweak the chances to their favor in crucial actions. >> >> > >Let me get this straight. You think that I should use Fudge Points to >raise an Epic (-4) task? I apologize for the rudeness, but it would be >stupid to waste Fudge Points that way. > > > That's what Fudge points are there for. If you have an action, that by rights should fail, you use your Fudge Points to make it succeed. Sometimes, the Universe blinks, and the longshot comes up. As far as wasting them goes, you can always earn more. The real waste is earning them, but not using them. Personally, I think it might not be a bad idea to either put a cap on the maximum number of Fudge Points a player can have in their pool, or, alternatively, a "use it or lose it" rule whereby if you sit on your Fudge Points too long, they "leak" out--the window of opportunity slipping away. >>You have 9 FP:s. By making a double action (+1), and using 8 FP:s (for >>a roll of ++++, and possibility for an open-ended result), you can >>ensure a net result of at least +5 minus the difficulty. Spend that >>on an action to target the upper levels of the society, and you have >>the power base. >> >> > > > >>It would not hurt if you had something to offer for the >>rulers also (Protestant Christianity gained large support among the >>ruling class as soon as they realized that it gave them an excuse to rip >>off the monasteries). >> >> > >I have stated and restated what Exquaestio offers. Since those >statements were ignored I have had no choice except to use actions to >state what those offers are. Since by decreasing the rate of growth you >have given me fewer actions those definitions come extremely slowly. > > > Again, you probably mentioned this before, but what does Exquaestio offer converts? I only ask because there was a period a few months ago when Yahoo! was dumping about half the messages from the list into my Bulk E-mail folder, and I might have missed that particular posting. Andrew Janssen >Jefferson (Exquaestio) >http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ >---------------------------------------------------------------- >To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net. > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 7/11/04 12:09:07 AM Mountain Daylight Time, andrewdj54701@yahoo.com writes: >RulingNations@aol.com wrote: > >I think that a part of the problem is that the existing rules for >societal expansion are designed for nation-states, not religions or >other NGOs. Nation-states do find it harder to grow as they grow; IIRC >it's something like a logarithmic curve, starting out very quickly and >then decelerating over time. Yes. Essentially its a problem that as internal distances increase, borders increase even faster. Nations without this problem, like one founded at one end of a long skinny island and expanding down its length, or one based on colonies who lose borders when they join together, tend to maintain relatively steady rates of growth. (Territory Good! Borders Bad!) >With nations, one of the limits on growth is the speed of >communication. As a society expands to occupy more and more area, the >communications lag between the core and the fringe eventually reaches a >point where the society becomes so large it fractures; witness the >Roman Empire. There are other factors, of course, but communication lag >is important. That's why all the great empires of history, with the >notable exception of Pharonic Egypt and Imperial Russia, have been >great road builders: good roads allow the rulers to project their power >and communicate quickly. Egypt didn't build many roads because they >used the Nile; as for Russia, the Tsars and the Soviets kept most of >their roads unpaved because from their point of view, roads were not so >much tools for internal control as they were pathways for invaders. Communications are important, but they are also subject to a great many variables. The same communication techniques that allowed China to control one of the greatest empires in the world only allowed moderately large kingdoms in Indonesia. >Communication lag in our world has posed similar problems for religions: >witness the factions and heresies of Christianity, and the change in >Buddhism as one moves from India, to Nepal, to Tibet, to China, to >Japan. However, at present, this communications lag should not be as >much of a problem for Exquaestio, assuming they have a magical means of >rapid communication. They don't at present, although they should develop one within the next decade. However, this is why growth beyond Junder has basically restricted itself to coastal areas. By using established trade routes Exquaestio can basically keep message turn around time to less than 6 weeks between even the farthest portions of their organization, which works fine for the loose administration they currently have. >The reason why the current rules don't really work for describing >Exquaestio's expansion is that they appear to assume that when a >society grows in Scope, it's gaining members _and land_. Exquaestio is >trying to gain members, but unless I've missed something, at the >moment, you're almost exclusively working in the Free Cities, so you're >not trying to grab land. We're not exclusively in the Free Cities, but, outside that area, the largest group is the 38 in Tanimbar. (This number is likely to grow rapidly. Tanimbar's high religious tolerance and low religious sophistication make it as ripe for Exquaestio conversion as Ireland was for Christianity.) But I look at is as using a different strategy of increasing population. The four strategies are: Reproduction, Assimilation, Conversion, and Conquest. Each strategy has its own problems and benefits. By using a conversion strategy, Exquaestio isn't tying up its membership like it would with a conquest strategy. >In other words, for a nation, it's not the gaining of population that >makes expansion in Scope harder the bigger a society already is; it's >the acquiring of the land and resources to support the increase in >population that makes the difficulty. So, since Exquaestio's newly >recruited members are, presumably, still citizens of whichever Free City >they live in, Exquaestio doesn't need to worry about supporting those >new members as a nation would have to worry. Yes, but this is also a major reason why, when many of its areas are wealthy, Exquaestio itself is poor. Surpluses are going to the local government, not to Exquaestio. >>Local and ethnic religions like Judaism and Sikhism have no relevance to >>the existing circumstances. Religions based on personally following a >>particular religious leader are also irrelevant. > >This may be a stupid question, but why are they irrelevant, exactly? Exquaestio is multinational and multicultural, it might be forced into the mode of an ethnic religion, but it currently doesn't work that way. Personal following of a charismatic leader don't apply to Exquaestio because most of the membership have not and will not meet the head of the church. >>So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further >>guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion >>and you're going to have to read my mind." > >Well, I don't know what Juuso thinks, but I'd say "Yes, there is no such >thing as a typical religion." As far as the first tier are concerned, in >every case, unique circumstances propelled them on to the world stage. >For many of them, their success depended on the right person being in >the right place at the right time. You can't say that "Such-and-so is a >necessary requirement for a religion to become great," because the role >of chance is too great and cannot be ignored. The great religions all >have unique stories; only in the little religions can you make >predictions and generalizations. I disagree. For one, all the great religions had no difficulty making converts in their early days. The specifics were unique in each case, but they can be boiled down to fulfilling a need which wasn't being met. So basically, if a new religion doesn't start out fast its not going to go anywhere. >I may not be clear about this, but then, religion is a subject about >which clarity is difficult. [snip] >As far as wasting them [Fudge Points] goes, you can always earn more. Not easily. I was waiting for my Fudge Points to go from seven to eight since December. >The real waste is earning them, but not using them. Personally, I think >it might not be a bad idea to either put a cap on the maximum number of >Fudge Points a player can have in their pool, or, alternatively, a "use >it or lose it" rule whereby if you sit on your Fudge Points too long, >they "leak" out--the window of opportunity slipping away. If either of these proposals are adopted I will be quitting the game. First, how Fudge Points are gained has nothing to do with when they might be used. Second, it biases the game toward people who are good earning points, regardless of whether they are good at spending them. Personally, most of the uses of Fudge Points I have seen are wasteful. [snip] >>I have stated and restated what Exquaestio offers. Since those >>statements were ignored I have had no choice except to use actions to >>state what those offers are. Since by decreasing the rate of growth you >>have given me fewer actions those definitions come extremely slowly. > >Again, you probably mentioned this before, but what does Exquaestio >offer converts? I only ask because there was a period a few months ago >when Yahoo! was dumping about half the messages from the list into my >Bulk E-mail folder, and I might have missed that particular posting. Other than political power in the local government, nothing has been mentioned which other religions offer that isn't offered by Exquaestio. More specifically Exquaestio offers: 1) Education: All clergy (anradan, espiri, rohain) are responsible for basic education. The primary subjects are Literacy, Mathematics, and Combat (with a leavening of Philosophy, primarily morality, magic, and theology). Education is not free, but little more than a token payment is required. Because so little is asked, most clergy must support themselves in another manner. However, even an hour an evening is more teaching than is available to most people outside Exquaestio. 2) Community: A member of Exquaestio gains a title (Quaesto for men, Quaesta for women), just like a noble. They know that they are part of a growing organization spread over many nations and into the Dreaming. They know that each individual is important and together they are working to fulfill a destiny currently unimaginable. The clergy cooperate and listen to the members. Members need not be afraid of magic because the espiri and rohain are under the authority of anradan, who have no magic. 3) Protection: Any person or community can call upon the rohain for protection from the supernatural. If needed, a community can even _create_ rohain, although such will still have to be trained. Clergy will even interfere with the local government on occasion. 4) Magic: Though weak, magic is relatively common within Exquaestio. Members are not mere onlookers in the face of magic, they are encouraged to participate, and know that some effects can only be produced with their aide. The membership also knows that Exquaestio's magical abilities are expanding. Jefferson (Exquaestio) http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >In a message dated 7/11/04 12:09:07 AM Mountain Daylight Time, >andrewdj54701@yahoo.com writes: > > >>RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >> >>>>>So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further >>>guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion >>>and you're going to have to read my mind." >>> >>> >>Well, I don't know what Juuso thinks, but I'd say "Yes, there is no such >>thing as a typical religion." As far as the first tier are concerned, in >>every case, unique circumstances propelled them on to the world stage. >>For many of them, their success depended on the right person being in >>the right place at the right time. You can't say that "Such-and-so is a >>necessary requirement for a religion to become great," because the role >>of chance is too great and cannot be ignored. The great religions all >>have unique stories; only in the little religions can you make >>predictions and generalizations. >> >> > >I disagree. For one, all the great religions had no difficulty making >converts in their early days. The specifics were unique in each case, >but they can be boiled down to fulfilling a need which wasn't being met. >So basically, if a new religion doesn't start out fast its not going to >go anywhere. > > > I see your point. >>I may not be clear about this, but then, religion is a subject about >>which clarity is difficult. >> >> > >[snip] > > > >>As far as wasting them [Fudge Points] goes, you can always earn more. >> >> > >Not easily. I was waiting for my Fudge Points to go from seven to eight >since December. > > > >>The real waste is earning them, but not using them. Personally, I think >>it might not be a bad idea to either put a cap on the maximum number of >>Fudge Points a player can have in their pool, or, alternatively, a "use >>it or lose it" rule whereby if you sit on your Fudge Points too long, >>they "leak" out--the window of opportunity slipping away. >> >> > >If either of these proposals are adopted I will be quitting the game. >First, how Fudge Points are gained has nothing to do with when they >might be used. Second, it biases the game toward people who are good >earning points, regardless of whether they are good at spending them. >Personally, most of the uses of Fudge Points I have seen are wasteful. > > > So what, then, would in your mind be a non-wasteful use of Fudge Points? >[snip] > > > >>>I have stated and restated what Exquaestio offers. Since those >>>statements were ignored I have had no choice except to use actions to >>>state what those offers are. Since by decreasing the rate of growth you >>>have given me fewer actions those definitions come extremely slowly. >>> >>> >>Again, you probably mentioned this before, but what does Exquaestio >>offer converts? I only ask because there was a period a few months ago >>when Yahoo! was dumping about half the messages from the list into my >>Bulk E-mail folder, and I might have missed that particular posting. >> >> > >Other than political power in the local government, nothing has been >mentioned which other religions offer that isn't offered by Exquaestio. >More specifically Exquaestio offers: > >1) Education: > > >2) Community: > >3) Protection: Any person or community can call upon the rohain for >protection from the supernatural. If needed, a community can even >_create_ rohain, although such will still have to be trained. Clergy >will even interfere with the local government on occasion. > > > That last has a potential to create conflict. >4) Magic: Though weak, magic is relatively common within Exquaestio. >Members are not mere onlookers in the face of magic, they are encouraged >to participate, and know that some effects can only be produced with >their aide. The membership also knows that Exquaestio's magical >abilities are expanding. > > > Hmm. I see interesting times, possibly. Exquaestio's common use of magic will almost certainly bring it into eventual conflict with the Millat Shanar faith currently favored by Kaeir and the Shanari tribes, a faith that is deeply opposed to the use of any kind of magic for any purpose. Andrew Janssen >Jefferson (Exquaestio) >http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ >---------------------------------------------------------------- >To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net. > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 7/11/04 3:32:27 PM Mountain Daylight Time, andrewdj54701@yahoo.com writes: >So what, then, would in your mind be a non-wasteful use of Fudge Points? Last turn I used 8 Fudge Points to be sure of getting a permanent effect. Using four Fudge points on a -1 is useful. Using two points on a -1 is wasteful. [snip] >Hmm. I see interesting times, possibly. Exquaestio's common use of magic >will almost certainly bring it into eventual conflict with the Millat >Shanar faith currently favored by Kaeir and the Shanari tribes, a faith >that is deeply opposed to the use of any kind of magic for any purpose. Yes. Overt conflict is still decades away (at least), but I see ripples affecting both faiths right now. Also, much of Exquaestio's reaction is going to be affected by events in Videssia. Jefferson http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ] ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
>Then what would you consider typical? What historical religion, relevant
>to Exquaestio's situation, has had increased difficulty gaining converts
>simply due to their growth?
>
>
I'm afraid I can't boast about high level of knowledge of these issues,
so I
have to settle for common sense (insomuch as I have it). And that tells me
that exponential growth is exceptional, rather than the norm.
The typical case goes somewhere between a linear and exponential growth
And since the size scales in FIH follow the exponential curve, jumping
from one scale to next will be more difficult for each step.
Another reasoning for increased difficulity is this: initially, more or
less all members of the religion will act as missionaries (depending on
the drive for growth that the religion has). But when the religion grows,
the ratio of more-or-less passive members to the active ones grows, too.
Imagine the religion as a circle with the edge of the circle acting as
the converting agent. The ratio of the people on the edge (missionaries)
to the people inside the circle dimishes as the size of the circle grows.
For the same reason, the size modification for army size in IH combat
rules is not linear.
>On our world there are five "first tier" religions: Buddhism,
>Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, and Taoism.
>
Now you are only looking at the big religions. Apart from those five, how
many smaller religions and cults there are that have grown at a smaller
rate, and ultimately remained small / smallish? My measure of "typical"
goes along their lines. The big five are the extreme cases, which have
managed to make it big time.
>Of those, only Buddhism's and
>Islam's origins are sufficiently well documented to serve in world
>design.
>
If you use only those two, you are limited by the bias in the training set:
both grew up to be big religions, and fairly fast at that. Any rules you
derive from those two examples only apply to the same kind of cases ==> you
first assume that the religion is going to be a big one, and then apply the
rules. Gamewise, it might be possible to use this kind of rules for
Player societies, and another set of rules for Non-player societies - but
I have a strong aversion to this. The difference between Player and
Non-player
societies should arise from the player, not from the rules.
How about scientology, or the various christian sects in the 19th and 20th
century? I do not have any numbers of those, does anybody else? The growth
of various christian sects is especially interesting, since they are
competing
essentially over the same resources, and all had basically big drives to
grow.
>So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further
>guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion
>and you're going to have to read my mind."
>
>
Hmm... it does seem that way. Although society growth is obviously a very
important aspect of interactive history (it has just been downplayed so far
because it is less relevant for the nations and big & established
religions, which basically grow only with natural population growth, or by
conquest), there have been no rules governing it. Well ... (insert 2 days
break here) ... here's my take on it:
Growth of societies
-------------------
Religions and other organizations consist of members. The organizations
themselves may actually own land, be part of a nation, or another religion,
but the size of the society is governed by how many members it has.
Note: a single person may actually be a member in a number of organizations
(the surrounding nation, to start with).
Some organizations are stable, and their membership increases and decreases
only with the flow of the population. The stability may follow from a
monopoly
situation (state religion), absence of a missionary drive in the environment
(non-competing religions for one pantheon, for example, with active
missionary
work inhibited), or inability of people to switch their membership
(caste system).
In other cases, system dynamics govern the memberships of different
religions
and organizations (e.g. political parties). As well known, this can get
very
complicated very easily, so to simplify we only consider the case of a
single
organization (player society) acting in an otherwise stable environment.
p = population (number of members)
r = rate of conversion (one missionary converts r people per year)
m = missionary drive (the portion of society's members acting as
missionaries)
Both exist for both the society (s), and the environment (e). Thus the
change in
one year is:
(1) dp_s = p_s * m_s * r_s - p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, we'll insert some other factors. The portion of missionaries is not
linear
with the population: it will decrease when population increases (the
first ones
who join are the most eager ones, and later ones will on the average
have less
enthusiasm; there are also other factors influencing similarly). This is
function
f, 1/x <= f(x) <= 1.
(2) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * m_s * r_s - f(p_e) * p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, all the missionaries of the environment are hardly going to concentrate
on the single active society. We assume that these go hand in hand (for
everyone
trying to convert a member, there is somebody on the opposite side trying
to keep hold of the member), so that for the delta calculation p_e = s *
p_s,
where s is a suppression factor. If the environment feels threatened by the
active society, it will concentrate more effort into its missionary
activities
against the society. (NOTE: this works both ways: if the society size is
equal
or more than the size of its environment, the p_s is replaced with p_e,
not the
other way around.)
(3) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * (m_s * r_s - s * m_e * r_e)
= f(p_s) * p_s * m_e * r_e * (m_s/m_e * r_s/r_e - s)
Simplifying:
(4) dp_s = f(p) * p * a * (m * r - s)
where
f(p): a factor denoting the proportion of active missionaries in the
society
(if we use an expanding circle as a metaphora, with the edge of
the circle
working as the conversion agent, the function f(p) =~ p^-0.5)
p: min(population of the society, population of environment)
a: scaling factor (basically the average rate of conversion * portion
of missionaries)
m: the society's urge to grow vs. the environment
r: its appeal to outsiders vs. environment's appeal to its members
s: suppression factor
Rules for growth of societies
-----------------------------
Of course, the equation (4) can not be taken as is. It only shows the
relevant
factors and their relations. Gamewise, this can be turned (e.g.) into this:
membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion
mod - Suppression + Action mod)
where
Expansion mod = the society's urge to grow vs. the environment, or the
competitiveness
of the environment; includes the relative number of
missionaries in the
society (w.r.t. environment in general)
Conversion mod = the society's appeal to outsiders vs. environment's
appeal to
members of the society
Suppression = only used for illegal / criminal organizations -
involvement in the organization
carries a penalty all by itself
Action mod = result of the expansion action, typically based on
Resources, but may also
be based on some political determinant
Whenever the scope of the society, or some other important factor, changes,
the Expansion and Conversion mods need to be rechecked: the environment
is constantly
evolving to take into account the expanding society. Even if the society
starts with
a Expansion+Conversion mod = +8, this is not going to hold for ever.
Of course, the stable point is when the expansion and conversion mods
(and suppression)
of all societies are equal.
Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * r_e,
or the
average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate per year). Any
suggestions?
Case Exquaestio
---------------
Exquaestio has a relatively aggressive expansionist outlook. Of course,
Free cities is quite a competitive environment, but still I'd say that
Exquestio has a +2 Expansion mod (for now).
Exquaestio's appeal (or "offering") on the other hand does not essentially
differ very much from what the others do. The way I see it, the advantages
of Exquaestio are in emphasis on Education (other's do it, but usually for
a lot of money) and low level of hierarchy (other religions tend to be very
hierarchical, deriving from the fact that top of the structure is very
sharp).
All in all, a +1 Conversion mod, and mostly for the middle and lower
classes.
The last year's action changed this a bit. I'd like to interpret it as
answering a kind of social need for a religion that offers help, knowledge
and perhaps a bit of magic for the common man. As such, it would not be
much interest to the rich and powerful (except for ideological reasons),
but mainly appeal to lower middle class, who see the need for knowledge,
but have been excluded from it due to high associated price. At the same
time, Exquaestio has been manifestly able to protect itself from the
supernatural obstacles that its opponents more or less openly have thrown
to it. I think that should be a big boost for the Conversion mod, raising
it to +3 (for a short while at least).
Now, I've experimented with the formula above a bit, and based on my
results, 7500 is way too small size for a religion that has been actively
spreading for about 10 years (and has not been too selective about its
members, either). I have to apologize for not really thinking this through
before, but I think that you should have at least 10x as many members.
Do you want to update the history, or just work up from the current
situation
using the new rules?
BTW, using the numbers above (from 1->75000 in 10 years, with +3
Exp+Conv mod,
you get a value of 30 for a, or 30% missionary ratio times conversion rate
of 100/year).
juuso
----------------------------------------------------------------
To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
Well, in terms of the growth of a religion in a particular religion, I
can relate a brief outline of the growth of Islam in Iran (back from
when I was doing my history degree).
Essentially, because the conquering Muslims were Arabs, there was
significant cultural, linguistic and religious differences between them
and the Zoroastrian Farsi-speaking Iranians. Within a generation or two
though a small number of Iranians had converted to Islam, this gradual
growth continued over a century or so (based on the changes in names in
geneologies etc from the period), but gradually began to pick up pace.
By about the 3rd or 4th century of Muslim rule in Iran, it had reached a
critical mass, and the majority of Muslims in Iran were now Iranians not
Arab. Shortly after this period, there is a sudden boost in Muslim
numbers, and a corresponding drop in Zoroastrians. From this period
(the 10th or 11th century I think) the appearance of the Parsis in India
dates (Zoroastrians who fled Iran), and the abandonment/destruction of
many firetemples. Religious conflict in Iran wasn't known in the first
few centuries, but only when a majority of Iranians had adopted Islam
did the issue of difference become an issue.
This pattern is the same in many societies experiencing a religious
change - little happens initially (unless the new religion challenges
the state), and converts are accepted at first. Only when they start
reaching a majority (almost) does a conflict start developing - and then
the winning "side" resumes its absolute majority status.
Not sure if this helps with yout discussion - you might be interested in
looking at the spread of Manicheanism (an off-shoot of Zoroastrianism).
Its missionary methods were so successful it penetrated Christianity
(Cathars) and Islam (Fatimids and the Ismailis), and even achieved a
temporary foothold in China. The variants of Manicheanism were so
successful because they had a method of gradual initiation - a novice
thought they were joining a Christian or Muslim group (respectively),
and only the masters knew of the dualist thought at the heart of the
sects. They were also found among some pre-Ottoman Turk groups, and the
Bosnian Bogomils.
Cheers,
Ibrahim
-----Original Message-----
From: bounces@phoenyx.net [mailto:bounces@phoenyx.net] On Behalf Of Juha
Vesanto
Sent: Wednesday, July 21, 2004 7:27 AM
To: celandra@phoenyx.net
Subject: Re: [Cel] Expansion
RulingNations@aol.com wrote:
>Then what would you consider typical? What historical religion,
>relevant to Exquaestio's situation, has had increased difficulty
>gaining converts simply due to their growth?
>
>
I'm afraid I can't boast about high level of knowledge of these issues,
so I
have to settle for common sense (insomuch as I have it). And that tells
me that exponential growth is exceptional, rather than the norm. The
typical case goes somewhere between a linear and exponential growth And
since the size scales in FIH follow the exponential curve, jumping from
one scale to next will be more difficult for each step.
Another reasoning for increased difficulity is this: initially, more or
less all members of the religion will act as missionaries (depending on
the drive for growth that the religion has). But when the religion
grows, the ratio of more-or-less passive members to the active ones
grows, too. Imagine the religion as a circle with the edge of the circle
acting as the converting agent. The ratio of the people on the edge
(missionaries) to the people inside the circle dimishes as the size of
the circle grows. For the same reason, the size modification for army
size in IH combat rules is not linear.
>On our world there are five "first tier" religions: Buddhism,
>Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, and Taoism.
>
Now you are only looking at the big religions. Apart from those five,
how many smaller religions and cults there are that have grown at a
smaller rate, and ultimately remained small / smallish? My measure of
"typical" goes along their lines. The big five are the extreme cases,
which have managed to make it big time.
>Of those, only Buddhism's and
>Islam's origins are sufficiently well documented to serve in world
>design.
>
If you use only those two, you are limited by the bias in the training
set: both grew up to be big religions, and fairly fast at that. Any
rules you derive from those two examples only apply to the same kind of
cases ==> you first assume that the religion is going to be a big one,
and then apply the rules. Gamewise, it might be possible to use this
kind of rules for Player societies, and another set of rules for
Non-player societies - but I have a strong aversion to this. The
difference between Player and
Non-player
societies should arise from the player, not from the rules.
How about scientology, or the various christian sects in the 19th and
20th century? I do not have any numbers of those, does anybody else? The
growth of various christian sects is especially interesting, since they
are
competing
essentially over the same resources, and all had basically big drives to
grow.
>So, by dismissing Buddhism and Islam and not giving any further
>guidelines you are saying, "There's no such thing as a typical religion
>and you're going to have to read my mind."
>
>
Hmm... it does seem that way. Although society growth is obviously a
very important aspect of interactive history (it has just been
downplayed so far because it is less relevant for the nations and big &
established religions, which basically grow only with natural population
growth, or by conquest), there have been no rules governing it. Well ...
(insert 2 days break here) ... here's my take on it:
Growth of societies
-------------------
Religions and other organizations consist of members. The organizations
themselves may actually own land, be part of a nation, or another
religion, but the size of the society is governed by how many members it
has.
Note: a single person may actually be a member in a number of
organizations (the surrounding nation, to start with).
Some organizations are stable, and their membership increases and
decreases only with the flow of the population. The stability may follow
from a
monopoly
situation (state religion), absence of a missionary drive in the
environment (non-competing religions for one pantheon, for example, with
active
missionary
work inhibited), or inability of people to switch their membership
(caste system).
In other cases, system dynamics govern the memberships of different
religions
and organizations (e.g. political parties). As well known, this can get
very
complicated very easily, so to simplify we only consider the case of a
single
organization (player society) acting in an otherwise stable environment.
p = population (number of members)
r = rate of conversion (one missionary converts r people per year)
m = missionary drive (the portion of society's members acting as
missionaries)
Both exist for both the society (s), and the environment (e). Thus the
change in
one year is:
(1) dp_s = p_s * m_s * r_s - p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, we'll insert some other factors. The portion of missionaries is not
linear
with the population: it will decrease when population increases (the
first ones
who join are the most eager ones, and later ones will on the average
have less
enthusiasm; there are also other factors influencing similarly). This is
function
f, 1/x <= f(x) <= 1.
(2) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * m_s * r_s - f(p_e) * p_e * m_e * r_e
Now, all the missionaries of the environment are hardly going to
concentrate on the single active society. We assume that these go hand
in hand (for
everyone
trying to convert a member, there is somebody on the opposite side
trying to keep hold of the member), so that for the delta calculation
p_e = s *
p_s,
where s is a suppression factor. If the environment feels threatened by
the active society, it will concentrate more effort into its missionary
activities
against the society. (NOTE: this works both ways: if the society size is
equal
or more than the size of its environment, the p_s is replaced with p_e,
not the
other way around.)
(3) dp_s = f(p_s) * p_s * (m_s * r_s - s * m_e * r_e)
= f(p_s) * p_s * m_e * r_e * (m_s/m_e * r_s/r_e - s)
Simplifying:
(4) dp_s = f(p) * p * a * (m * r - s)
where
f(p): a factor denoting the proportion of active missionaries in the
society
(if we use an expanding circle as a metaphora, with the edge of
the circle
working as the conversion agent, the function f(p) =~ p^-0.5)
p: min(population of the society, population of environment)
a: scaling factor (basically the average rate of conversion * portion
of missionaries)
m: the society's urge to grow vs. the environment
r: its appeal to outsiders vs. environment's appeal to its members
s: suppression factor
Rules for growth of societies
-----------------------------
Of course, the equation (4) can not be taken as is. It only shows the
relevant
factors and their relations. Gamewise, this can be turned (e.g.) into
this:
membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion
mod - Suppression + Action mod)
where
Expansion mod = the society's urge to grow vs. the environment, or the
competitiveness
of the environment; includes the relative number of
missionaries in the
society (w.r.t. environment in general)
Conversion mod = the society's appeal to outsiders vs. environment's
appeal to
members of the society
Suppression = only used for illegal / criminal organizations -
involvement in the organization
carries a penalty all by itself
Action mod = result of the expansion action, typically based on
Resources, but may also
be based on some political determinant
Whenever the scope of the society, or some other important factor,
changes, the Expansion and Conversion mods need to be rechecked: the
environment
is constantly
evolving to take into account the expanding society. Even if the society
starts with
a Expansion+Conversion mod = +8, this is not going to hold for ever.
Of course, the stable point is when the expansion and conversion mods
(and suppression)
of all societies are equal.
Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * r_e,
or the
average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate per year).
Any suggestions?
Case Exquaestio
---------------
Exquaestio has a relatively aggressive expansionist outlook. Of course,
Free cities is quite a competitive environment, but still I'd say that
Exquestio has a +2 Expansion mod (for now).
Exquaestio's appeal (or "offering") on the other hand does not
essentially differ very much from what the others do. The way I see it,
the advantages of Exquaestio are in emphasis on Education (other's do
it, but usually for a lot of money) and low level of hierarchy (other
religions tend to be very hierarchical, deriving from the fact that top
of the structure is very
sharp).
All in all, a +1 Conversion mod, and mostly for the middle and lower
classes.
The last year's action changed this a bit. I'd like to interpret it as
answering a kind of social need for a religion that offers help,
knowledge and perhaps a bit of magic for the common man. As such, it
would not be much interest to the rich and powerful (except for
ideological reasons), but mainly appeal to lower middle class, who see
the need for knowledge, but have been excluded from it due to high
associated price. At the same time, Exquaestio has been manifestly able
to protect itself from the supernatural obstacles that its opponents
more or less openly have thrown to it. I think that should be a big
boost for the Conversion mod, raising it to +3 (for a short while at
least).
Now, I've experimented with the formula above a bit, and based on my
results, 7500 is way too small size for a religion that has been
actively spreading for about 10 years (and has not been too selective
about its members, either). I have to apologize for not really thinking
this through before, but I think that you should have at least 10x as
many members. Do you want to update the history, or just work up from
the current
situation
using the new rules?
BTW, using the numbers above (from 1->75000 in 10 years, with +3
Exp+Conv mod,
you get a value of 30 for a, or 30% missionary ratio times conversion
rate of 100/year).
juuso
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Thank you. I haven't had a chance to read your post in detail, but I will and will respond when I have the time. However, there is something I would like to clear up since I was hoping to post my actions this weekend. In a message dated 7/20/04 5:29:49 PM Mountain Daylight Time, juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: >Now, I've experimented with the formula above a bit, and based on my >results, 7500 is way too small size for a religion that has been actively >spreading for about 10 years (and has not been too selective about its >members, either). I have to apologize for not really thinking this through >before, but I think that you should have at least 10x as many members. Then we agree. Remember, however, that I've been pushing the expansion actions. If the rate of expansion was lower I wouldn't have been pushing those actions as much. Likely this would have resulted in more members, but not a huge multiple. >Do you want to update the history, or just work up from the current >situation using the new rules? I'd prefer to work with the existing membership. However, I'm not clear on what will happen with the 10% yearly expansion (without requiring actions) that I got last year. Since the main reason I set up that action was to get the 10% natural expansion, I'd be unhappy if it was replaced with a bonus that I had to use expansion actions to get. The following options are based on some thoughts I've had. If Exquaestio should be larger, perhaps the current 10% expansion should be raised. I wouldn't be comfortable with raising it above 15% though. Maybe the 10% growth should extend through two cycles (of time, population levels, or whatever is appropriate) instead of falling after one. Speaking of cycles I'd sort of been assuming that the 10% growth would fall to 5% when Exquaestio reached a membership of 20,000 and to 0% when they reached 200,000. Is this appropriate? Perhaps I should have been thinking in years (12 seems about right to me). Suppose that if Exquaestio attempts conversion actions, they lose the automatic growth, but gain an appropriate die modifier. Growth: 15% = *2 in 5 years, *10 in 16.5 years 10% = *2 in 7.3 years, *10 in 24.2 years 5% = *2 in 14.2 years, *10 in 47.2 years My favorite option is 15% for the next 12 years, followed by 12 years @ 10% and 12 years @ 5% (subject to random events and enemy actions). Conversion actions add to the automatic growth, they don't substitute for it. Over the next 36 years that would grow the membership to 225,000 and allow me to concentrate on actions other than straight missionary work. Of course, that's also growing from one person in 1,000 to one person in 34 in the area that I'm operating in, which may be a bit steep for your taste. Jefferson http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
In a message dated 7/20/04 5:29:49 PM Mountain Daylight Time, juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: > >Growth of societies >------------------- > >Religions and other organizations consist of members. The organizations >themselves may actually own land, be part of a nation, or another >religion, but the size of the society is governed by how many members >it has. > >Note: a single person may actually be a member in a number of >organizations (the surrounding nation, to start with). > >Some organizations are stable, and their membership increases and >decreases only with the flow of the population. The stability may >follow from a monopoly situation (state religion), absence of a >missionary drive in the environment (noncompeting religions for one >pantheon, for example, with active missionary work inhibited), or >inability of people to switch their membership (caste system). > >In other cases, system dynamics govern the memberships of different >religions and organizations (e.g. political parties). As is well known, >this can get very complicated very easily, so to simplify we only >consider the case of a single organization (player society) acting in >an otherwise stable environment. Very good. [Snip of well-done equations.] >Rules for growth of societies >----------------------------- > >Of course, the equation (4) cannot be taken as is. It only shows the >relevant factors and their relations. Gamewise, this can be turned >(e.g.) into this: > >membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion >mod - Suppression + Action mod) In part of the section I snipped above you used p^-0.5 instead of p^0.5. p^0.5 works, being a reasonable compromise between fairly solid (p^-0.5) and totally diffuse (p) societies. p^-0.5 doesn't sufficiently take into account missionary diffusion; sending missionaries beyond the established communities. >where: > >Expansion mod = the society's urge to grow vs. the environment, or the >competitiveness of the environment; includes the relative number of >missionaries in the society (w.r.t. environment in general) >Conversion mod = the society's appeal to outsiders vs. environment's >appeal to members of the society >Suppression = only used for illegal / criminal organizations - >involvement in the organization carries a penalty all by itself >Action mod = result of the expansion action, typically based on >Resources, but may also be based on some political determinant > >Whenever the scope of the society, or some other important factor, >changes, the Expansion and Conversion mods need to be rechecked: the >environment is constantly evolving to take into account the expanding >society. Even if the society starts with a Expansion+Conversion mod = >+8, this is not going to hold for ever. > >Of course, the stable point is when the expansion and conversion mods >(and suppression) of all societies are equal. >Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * >r_e, or the average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate >per year). Any suggestions? Hmmm. So Exquaestio @ pop. 7500 has the equivalent of 87 full time missionaries. Each will probably address 12 potential converts every day. With duplication, reluctance, etc., about 2 new people per week will come back for more information or for services. Of those, about 80% will not be able to convert for various reasons (family, politics, etc.). So that would work out to about 21? Now, potentially this could be much higher. If Exquaestio was very wealthy and had a service arm directly devoted to missionary work, this value might go as high as 200. Hmmm, if you really want a _constant_ a I'd suggest making it a multiple or power of the modifiers. Thus, a = modifiers*10 or a = modifiers^3. >Case Exquaestio >--------------- > >Exquaestio has a relatively aggressive expansionist outlook. Of course, >Free cities is quite a competitive environment, but still I'd say that >Exquaestio has a +2 Expansion mod (for now). > >Exquaestio's appeal (or "offering") on the other hand does not >essentially differ very much from what the others do. The way I see it, >the advantages of Exquaestio are in emphasis on Education (other's do >it, but usually for a lot of money) and low level of hierarchy (other >religions tend to be very hierarchical, deriving from the fact that top >of the structure is very sharp). All in all, a +1 Conversion mod, and >mostly for the middle and lower classes. So a base conversion action would be p^0.5 * 20 * (3)? >The last year's action changed this a bit. I'd like to interpret it as >answering a kind of social need for a religion that offers help, >knowledge and perhaps a bit of magic for the common man. As such, it >would not be much interest to the rich and powerful (except for >ideological reasons), but mainly appeal to lower middle class, who see >the need for knowledge, but have been excluded from it due to high >associated price. At the same time, Exquaestio has been manifestly able >to protect itself from the supernatural obstacles that its opponents >more or less openly have thrown to it. I think that should be a big >boost for the Conversion mod, raising it to +3 (for a short while at >least). > >Now, I've experimented with the formula above a bit, and based on my >results, 7500 is way too small size for a religion that has been actively >spreading for about 10 years (and has not been too selective about its >members, either). I have to apologize for not really thinking this through >before, but I think that you should have at least 10x as many members. >Do you want to update the history, or just work up from the current >situation using the new rules? Work from the current situation. I would say that since you're giving a +2 conversion factor from last year's action, that should work out to a 2 conversion faction without taking an action? 1445's population was 6655 so 1446's will be 9918 or nearly a 50% growth rate? With this, Exquaestio will pass 20,000 population in 1450. Then the conversion factor add drops to +1? For how long? If I were to take a conversion action this year (which I don't intend) I would get the +3 for 6655^0.5 * 20 * (5 + Action result) or an average growth of 8157 or 123%? Jefferson http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >>membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion >>mod - Suppression + Action mod) >> >> > >In part of the section I snipped above you used p^-0.5 instead of p^0.5. > > If you look closely, the p^0.5 comes from f(p) * p = p^-0.5 * p = p^0.5. The p^-0.5 is suppression on the exponential growth. >>Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * >>r_e, or the average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate >>per year). Any suggestions? >> >> > >Hmmm. So Exquaestio @ pop. 7500 has the equivalent of 87 full time >missionaries. > In proportion to that, yes. But to calculate the "actual number of missionaries", you'd have to take the m_e back out from the coefficient a, and take the Expansion mod into account, as well. The equivalent number of missionaries would then be 87*m_e*Expansion_mod (with m_e<1). >Each will probably address 12 potential converts every >day. With duplication, reluctance, etc., about 2 new people per week >will come back for more information or for services. Of those, about 80% >will not be able to convert for various reasons (family, politics, >etc.). So that would work out to about 21? Now, potentially this could >be much higher. If Exquaestio was very wealthy and had a service arm >directly devoted to missionary work, this value might go as high as 200. > > True. >Hmmm, if you really want a _constant_ a I'd suggest making it a multiple >or power of the modifiers. Thus, a = modifiers*10 or a = modifiers^3. > > The a is already multiplied by the modifiers. If the value of a is 21 (for example), then with total modifier of +3, the actual conversion rate is 3*a/m_e = 63/m_e. Which, yes indeed, might go as high as 200 (=200 converts per year per missionary). >>Case Exquaestio >>--------------- >> >> >So a base conversion action would be p^0.5 * 20 * (3)? > > Yes. That would be with Roll=0. >Work from the current situation. > > Ok. >I would say that since you're giving a +2 conversion factor from last >year's action, that should work out to a 2 conversion faction without >taking an action? 1445's population was 6655 so 1446's will be 9918 or >nearly a 50% growth rate? With this, Exquaestio will pass 20,000 >population in 1450. Then the conversion factor add drops to +1? For how >long? > > I hope I answered this in my earlier post. Jeff, your comments, please. I think I have answered most questions, but if I haven't, please ask again. juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
I have to interrupt here, and make the point that these calculations are entirely dependent on what kind of population is being targeted. Obviously a population with primitive religion, or where a religion has become stagnant, will be far more likely to convert than a population with an organised, philosophical and vigorous religion. To boot, it would depend on cultural values of the population as well - obviously the Millat Shanari religion would not be successful in Mir, given its anti-sorcery stance. Ibrahim -----Original Message----- From: bounces@phoenyx.net [mailto:bounces@phoenyx.net] On Behalf Of Juha Vesanto Sent: Wednesday, August 04, 2004 5:34 AM To: celandra@phoenyx.net Subject: Re: [Cel] Expansion RulingNations@aol.com wrote: >>membership change per year = p^0.5 * a * (Expansion mod + Conversion >>mod - Suppression + Action mod) >> >> > >In part of the section I snipped above you used p^-0.5 instead of >p^0.5. > > If you look closely, the p^0.5 comes from f(p) * p = p^-0.5 * p = p^0.5. The p^-0.5 is suppression on the exponential growth. >>Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * >>r_e, or the average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate >>per year). Any suggestions? >> >> > >Hmmm. So Exquaestio @ pop. 7500 has the equivalent of 87 full time >missionaries. > In proportion to that, yes. But to calculate the "actual number of missionaries", you'd have to take the m_e back out from the coefficient a, and take the Expansion mod into account, as well. The equivalent number of missionaries would then be 87*m_e*Expansion_mod (with m_e<1). >Each will probably address 12 potential converts every >day. With duplication, reluctance, etc., about 2 new people per week >will come back for more information or for services. Of those, about >80% will not be able to convert for various reasons (family, politics, >etc.). So that would work out to about 21? Now, potentially this could >be much higher. If Exquaestio was very wealthy and had a service arm >directly devoted to missionary work, this value might go as high as >200. > > True. >Hmmm, if you really want a _constant_ a I'd suggest making it a >multiple or power of the modifiers. Thus, a = modifiers*10 or a = >modifiers^3. > > The a is already multiplied by the modifiers. If the value of a is 21 (for example), then with total modifier of +3, the actual conversion rate is 3*a/m_e = 63/m_e. Which, yes indeed, might go as high as 200 (=200 converts per year per missionary). >>Case Exquaestio >>--------------- >> >> >So a base conversion action would be p^0.5 * 20 * (3)? > > Yes. That would be with Roll=0. >Work from the current situation. > > Ok. >I would say that since you're giving a +2 conversion factor from last >year's action, that should work out to a 2 conversion faction without >taking an action? 1445's population was 6655 so 1446's will be 9918 or >nearly a 50% growth rate? With this, Exquaestio will pass 20,000 >population in 1450. Then the conversion factor add drops to +1? For how >long? > > I hope I answered this in my earlier post. Jeff, your comments, please. I think I have answered most questions, but if I haven't, please ask again. juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net. ================================ Confidentiality Statement and Disclaimer ================================ This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and contains information that is privileged and confidential. If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message. Thank you. ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
Ibrahim wrote: >I have to interrupt here, and make the point that these calculations are >entirely dependent on what kind of population is being targeted. >Obviously a population with primitive religion, or where a religion has >become stagnant, will be far more likely to convert than a population >with an organised, philosophical and vigorous religion. > True. But that is all taken into account in the Expansion and Conversion mods. > To boot, it >would depend on cultural values of the population as well - obviously >the Millat Shanari religion would not be successful in Mir, given its >anti-sorcery stance. > > Definetly a negative Conversion mod. Note that both Expansion and Conversion mods are w.r.t. to the surrounding society, so the same society may have different kinds of mods in different societies. juuso ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
It looks like this post got lost somewhere. The following was supposed to have been sent quite a while back. > In a message dated 7/20/04 5:29:49 PM Mountain Daylight Time, > juha.vesanto@iki.fi writes: > >> Now, all that remains is to determine a suitable constant a (=m_e * >> r_e, or the average missionary ratio times the average conversion rate >> per year). Any suggestions? After my last post it occurred to me that I'd overlooked some factors here. While the number of missionaries is going to decrease as the society expands, they're also going to become more efficient. They'll be better trained, more knowledgeable, better supported, have more time for missionary efforts, and so on and so forth. So, it looks to be that a, recalculated for efficiency, is another
