[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

It looks to me like the situation as it stands at the end of 1454 is 
this: the Ice Demons attacking Parglug were defeated. Unfortunately, the 
main Ice Demon attack was in Tana all along.

So, in 1455, the Allies are going to have to figure out how to get the 
western army to Tana. They need to move about 70,000 men about 1,322 
miles as the crow flies. Marching overland from southern Parglug to the 
mouth of the Imbros will take between 81 and 163 days. Sea transport, 
assuming availability of sufficient hulls, will take 16 days (6 days' 
march to Parmouth, 10 days from Parmouth to the Imbros. Unfortunately, 
the Ice Demons have shown some ability to interdict sea transport.

Which raises the question: How many men can Annaeyana, the Floating 
City, carry, and how fast can the city fly?

Andrew
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:

> It looks to me like the situation as it stands at the end of 1454 is 
> this: the Ice Demons attacking Parglug were defeated. Unfortunately, the 
> main Ice Demon attack was in Tana all along.
> 
> So, in 1455, the Allies are going to have to figure out how to get the 
> western army to Tana. They need to move about 70,000 men about 1,322 
> miles as the crow flies. Marching overland from southern Parglug to the 
> mouth of the Imbros will take between 81 and 163 days.

And may not be possible.  There must be some reason that there are no 
cities on the river running between Parglug and Junder, and either swamps 
or monsters would prevent the march.  Also, the men may be able to make the 
march, but supplies may not be able to make it to them through the winter 
snows.

> Sea transport, 
> assuming availability of sufficient hulls, will take 16 days (6 days' 
> march to Parmouth, 10 days from Parmouth to the Imbros. Unfortunately, 
> the Ice Demons have shown some ability to interdict sea transport.
> 
> Which raises the question: How many men can Annaeyana, the Floating 
> City, carry, and how fast can the city fly?

-- 
Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html



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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Remember that the orignal praglug was a bunch of barbaric pirates until they were united with Larasia, which was orignally one of the East Torphan cities.  Most of the civilized parts of Parglug are found in the western section were the old kingdom of Larasia used to resided.  So it is just as likely that the reason that their are no cities is because there has not really been civilization in the areas until recently, and so any cities would not have time become significat.  Keep in Mind that most of the cities on the map are large cities, capitals, cities that have been mentioned in game.  Mir has two more large cities that are not on the map because they are frankly of little importance in game play, but they are there.  

Jefferson  wrote:Andrew Janssen wrote:

> It looks to me like the situation as it stands at the end of 1454 is 
> this: the Ice Demons attacking Parglug were defeated. Unfortunately, the 
> main Ice Demon attack was in Tana all along.
> 
> So, in 1455, the Allies are going to have to figure out how to get the 
> western army to Tana. They need to move about 70,000 men about 1,322 
> miles as the crow flies. Marching overland from southern Parglug to the 
> mouth of the Imbros will take between 81 and 163 days.

And may not be possible. There must be some reason that there are no 
cities on the river running between Parglug and Junder, and either swamps 
or monsters would prevent the march. Also, the men may be able to make the 
march, but supplies may not be able to make it to them through the winter 
snows.

> Sea transport, 
> assuming availability of sufficient hulls, will take 16 days (6 days' 
> march to Parmouth, 10 days from Parmouth to the Imbros. Unfortunately, 
> the Ice Demons have shown some ability to interdict sea transport.
> 
> Which raises the question: How many men can Annaeyana, the Floating 
> City, carry, and how fast can the city fly?

-- 
Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html



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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:

> It looks to me like the situation as it stands at the end of 1454 is 
> this: the Ice Demons attacking Parglug were defeated. Unfortunately, the 
> main Ice Demon attack was in Tana all along.
> 
> So, in 1455, the Allies are going to have to figure out how to get the 
> western army to Tana.

[snip]

It occurs to me that that may not be necessary (though it would certainly 
be _useful_).  In 1454 the forces in the west were actually able to get 
_ahead_ of the ice demons.  That is, they are to the north of the demons 
with some forces on the flanks.  With some fortification work (with as much 
magical help as possible) it should be possible to hold the demons with the 
existing forces (or destroy them if they try to bypass the fortifications).

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/


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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

--- Jefferson  wrote:
> Andrew Janssen wrote:
> 
> > It looks to me like the situation as it stands at the end of 1454
> is 
> > this: the Ice Demons attacking Parglug were defeated.
> Unfortunately, the 
> > main Ice Demon attack was in Tana all along.
> > 
> > So, in 1455, the Allies are going to have to figure out how to get
> the 
> > western army to Tana.
> 
> [snip]
> 
> It occurs to me that that may not be necessary (though it would
> certainly 
> be _useful_).  In 1454 the forces in the west were actually able to
> get 
> _ahead_ of the ice demons.  That is, they are to the north of the
> demons 
> with some forces on the flanks.  With some fortification work (with
> as much 
> magical help as possible) it should be possible to hold the demons
> with the 
> existing forces (or destroy them if they try to bypass the
> fortifications).

The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
of the Tana peninsula. The Ice Demons could be advancing on the
*eastern* side.

Also, even with fortification, I don't think the eastern army has
enough troops to hold the horde. Looking at the map, the eastern army
would have to retreat quite far to the north before the peninsula
narrows enough to make a stand practical with only 30,000 men.

Andrew
 
> Jefferson
> http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/
> 
> 
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:
> --- Jefferson  wrote:
> 

>>It occurs to me that that may not be necessary (though it would
>>certainly 
>>be _useful_).  In 1454 the forces in the west were actually able to
>>get 
>>_ahead_ of the ice demons.  That is, they are to the north of the
>>demons 
>>with some forces on the flanks.  With some fortification work (with
>>as much 
>>magical help as possible) it should be possible to hold the demons
>>with the 
>>existing forces (or destroy them if they try to bypass the
>>fortifications).
> 
> 
> The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
> *western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
> of the Tana peninsula. The Ice Demons could be advancing on the
> *eastern* side.
> 
> Also, even with fortification, I don't think the eastern army has
> enough troops to hold the horde. Looking at the map, the eastern army
> would have to retreat quite far to the north before the peninsula
> narrows enough to make a stand practical with only 30,000 men.
> 
> Andrew

To be precise, the peninsula doesn't narrow enough for 30,000 men to be 
able to hold off a Horde until about 500 miles north of the mouth of the 
Imbros.

Andrew

> 
>>Jefferson
>>http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/
>>
>>
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:
> Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>--- Jefferson  wrote:
> 
>>>It occurs to me that that may not be necessary (though it would
>>>certainly 
>>>be _useful_).  In 1454 the forces in the west were actually able to
>>>get 
>>>_ahead_ of the ice demons.  That is, they are to the north of the
>>>demons 
>>>with some forces on the flanks.  With some fortification work (with
>>>as much 
>>>magical help as possible) it should be possible to hold the demons
>>>with the 
>>>existing forces (or destroy them if they try to bypass the
>>>fortifications).
>>
>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
>>of the Tana peninsula. The Ice Demons could be advancing on the
>>*eastern* side.
>>
>>Also, even with fortification, I don't think the eastern army has
>>enough troops to hold the horde. Looking at the map, the eastern army
>>would have to retreat quite far to the north before the peninsula
>>narrows enough to make a stand practical with only 30,000 men.
> 
> To be precise, the peninsula doesn't narrow enough for 30,000 men to be 
> able to hold off a Horde until about 500 miles north of the mouth of the 
> Imbros.

We don't know enough about the terrain to make a determination.  The War 
between Texas and Mexico was across an even wider border, but strategic 
considerations basically meant there were only three possible lines for the 
Mexican advance.  I did state this option a bit too strongly, though. 
Change "should" to "might" above.

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/



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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine

Err... wait a minute. Where did it say that? I'm willing to
let that stand, if there is reason to, but it is unclear to me
where, and how, did the western army manage to cut off the advance of
the Ice Demons in Tana? The way I see it, all major action happened
in Parglug.

It's just that I'll have to rewrite the events for this year if this
was the case. Which is something I can do, but would rather not.

>>of the Tana peninsula. The Ice Demons could be advancing on the
>>*eastern* side.

juuso
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Juha Vesanto wrote:

> Andrew Janssen wrote:
> 
>>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
> 
> Err... wait a minute. Where did it say that?

That was me.

> I'm willing to
> let that stand, if there is reason to, but it is unclear to me
> where, and how, did the western army manage to cut off the advance of
> the Ice Demons in Tana? The way I see it, all major action happened
> in Parglug.
 >
 > It's just that I'll have to rewrite the events for this year if this
 > was the case. Which is something I can do, but would rather not.

Something good needs to happen in Tana to justify Exquaestio's 'Mixed 
Results.'  I don't insist that the allies got ahead of the demons, but if 
nothing good happened in Parglug that wouldn't be mixed results, that would 
be failure.

If the Tana advance force is moving that quickly the western forces might 
have succeeded is severing the advance force from the rest of the horde.

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html



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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Jefferson wrote:
> Juha Vesanto wrote:
> 
> 
>>Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>
>>
>>>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
>>
>>Err... wait a minute. Where did it say that?
> 
> 
> That was me.
> 
> 
>>I'm willing to
>>let that stand, if there is reason to, but it is unclear to me
>>where, and how, did the western army manage to cut off the advance of
>>the Ice Demons in Tana? The way I see it, all major action happened
>>in Parglug.
> 
>  >
>  > It's just that I'll have to rewrite the events for this year if this
>  > was the case. Which is something I can do, but would rather not.
> 
> Something good needs to happen in Tana to justify Exquaestio's 'Mixed 
> Results.'  I don't insist that the allies got ahead of the demons, but if 
> nothing good happened in Parglug that wouldn't be mixed results, that would 
> be failure.

Actually, Jeff, looking back at the action results I think you've been 
confusing your east with your west. The original action result for 
Exquaestio was:

> ---+++ Action 1-3: The Third Demon War
> 
> *Resolution:* Diff = Normal (0) + Dice (---+) + Extras (Triple: +2) = 0 
> Mixed results
> 
> *Dice:*
> 
>     * Casualties: -1
>     * Reputation: -1
>     * East: -1
>     * West: +1

The success in the west would represent the success of the Allied Army 
in destroying the horde at Parglug. The failure in the east would be the 
failure of the battle at Lildra to slow the Ice Demon advance north.

Andrew

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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Andrew Janssen wrote:
> Jefferson wrote:
>>Juha Vesanto wrote:
>>>Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>>
>>>>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>>>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
>>>
>>>Err... wait a minute. Where did it say that?
>>
>>That was me.
>>
>>>I'm willing to
>>>let that stand, if there is reason to, but it is unclear to me
>>>where, and how, did the western army manage to cut off the advance of
>>>the Ice Demons in Tana? The way I see it, all major action happened
>>>in Parglug.
>>
>>>It's just that I'll have to rewrite the events for this year if this
>>>was the case. Which is something I can do, but would rather not.
>>
>>Something good needs to happen in Tana to justify Exquaestio's 'Mixed 
>>Results.'  I don't insist that the allies got ahead of the demons, but if 
>>nothing good happened in Parglug that wouldn't be mixed results, that would 
>>be failure.
> 
> Actually, Jeff, looking back at the action results I think you've been 
> confusing your east with your west.

Nope.

> The original action result for Exquaestio was:
> 
>>---+++ Action 1-3: The Third Demon War
>>
>>*Resolution:* Diff = Normal (0) + Dice (---+) + Extras (Triple: +2) = 0 
>>Mixed results
>>
>>*Dice:*
>>
>>    * Casualties: -1
>>    * Reputation: -1
>>    * East: -1
>>    * West: +1
> 
> The success in the west would represent the success of the Allied Army 
> in destroying the horde at Parglug. The failure in the east would be the 
> failure of the battle at Lildra to slow the Ice Demon advance north.

Yes, the contribution in the east was negative, and the contribution in the 
west was positive.  However, _the result_ was Mixed and, overall, 
Exquaestio got nothing from the west and was destroyed in the east. 
Overall, that's a failure.  Now, we could remove Lildra and have Exquaestio 
take fewer casualties, but its a good story and that wouldn't explain the 
extra resources Exquaestio allotted to this action.  Considering the 
relative numbers involved its much easier to explain something positive 
resulting in the east than in the west.

The destruction of Exquaestio's rohain and guards to some benefit in the 
east while having no significant effect in the west explains:

The extra resources allocated to the action.
The result dice.
The overall result.

And any alternative also needs to consider all three of these to make sense.

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html



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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Jefferson wrote:
> Andrew Janssen wrote:
> 
>>Jefferson wrote:
>>
>>>Juha Vesanto wrote:
>>>
>>>>Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>The eastern forces were able to get ahead of the Ice Demons on the
>>>>>>*western* side of the Tavar Mountains that form the north-south spine
>>>>
>>>>Err... wait a minute. Where did it say that?
>>>
>>>That was me.
>>>
>>>
>>>>I'm willing to
>>>>let that stand, if there is reason to, but it is unclear to me
>>>>where, and how, did the western army manage to cut off the advance of
>>>>the Ice Demons in Tana? The way I see it, all major action happened
>>>>in Parglug.
>>>
>>>>It's just that I'll have to rewrite the events for this year if this
>>>>was the case. Which is something I can do, but would rather not.
>>>
>>>Something good needs to happen in Tana to justify Exquaestio's 'Mixed 
>>>Results.'  I don't insist that the allies got ahead of the demons, but if 
>>>nothing good happened in Parglug that wouldn't be mixed results, that would 
>>>be failure.
>>
>>Actually, Jeff, looking back at the action results I think you've been 
>>confusing your east with your west.
> 
> 
> Nope.
> 
> 
>>The original action result for Exquaestio was:
>>
>>
>>>---+++ Action 1-3: The Third Demon War
>>>
>>>*Resolution:* Diff = Normal (0) + Dice (---+) + Extras (Triple: +2) = 0 
>>>Mixed results
>>>
>>>*Dice:*
>>>
>>>   * Casualties: -1
>>>   * Reputation: -1
>>>   * East: -1
>>>   * West: +1
>>
>>The success in the west would represent the success of the Allied Army 
>>in destroying the horde at Parglug. The failure in the east would be the 
>>failure of the battle at Lildra to slow the Ice Demon advance north.
> 
> 
> Yes, the contribution in the east was negative, and the contribution in the 
> west was positive.  However, _the result_ was Mixed and, overall, 
> Exquaestio got nothing from the west and was destroyed in the east. 
> Overall, that's a failure.  Now, we could remove Lildra and have Exquaestio 
> take fewer casualties, but its a good story and that wouldn't explain the 
> extra resources Exquaestio allotted to this action.  Considering the 
> relative numbers involved its much easier to explain something positive 
> resulting in the east than in the west.

We don't know that Exquaestio got nothing from the west--after all, the 
story arc I started contains the possibility that the Espiris' contacts 
with the Sedonians might produce far better relationships in the long 
run than would normally be expected. In particular, the good working 
relationship between Surgeon Astron Pithate and Pioneer Tania may well 
pay off big for Exquaestio. Pithate's a Patriarch of the Order of 
Mithrac and is the leading candidate to replace the current Archprelate 
of the Order. Even if he never attains the Archprelacy, his influence on 
the rest of the Order is considerable, and right now Pithate is 
favorably disposed towards Exquaestio.

Andrew

> The destruction of Exquaestio's rohain and guards to some benefit in the 
> east while having no significant effect in the west explains:
> 
> The extra resources allocated to the action.
> The result dice.
> The overall result.
> 
> And any alternative also needs to consider all three of these to make sense.
> 
> Jefferson
> http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/Exq_Main.html
> 
> 
> 
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Jefferson wrote:
> Yes, the contribution in the east was negative, and the contribution in the 
> west was positive.  However, _the result_ was Mixed and, overall, 
> Exquaestio got nothing from the west and was destroyed in the east. 

Hmm... Exquaestio was part of the force that destroyed the Ice Demons
in Parglug. That is something, I think. And Andrew's other suggestion
was good, too. But the Battle of Lildra is too good to waste on 
accoplishing nothing.

Here's a suggestion: led by Exquaestio Preceptor Lars, the MidSea
troops manage to cut the advancing Ice Demon lines into two parts.
The front guard continue fast approach towards north, while the
bulk of the army are delayed and partially blocked in Tana.

I'll change the events for this year to reflect this.

juuso
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[Cel] Strategic Situation, End of 1454

Juha Vesanto wrote:
> Jefferson wrote:
> 
>>Yes, the contribution in the east was negative, and the contribution in the 
>>west was positive.  However, _the result_ was Mixed and, overall, 
>>Exquaestio got nothing from the west and was destroyed in the east. 
> 
> Hmm... Exquaestio was part of the force that destroyed the Ice Demons
> in Parglug. That is something, I think. And Andrew's other suggestion
> was good, too. But the Battle of Lildra is too good to waste on 
> accoplishing nothing.
> 
> Here's a suggestion: led by Exquaestio Preceptor Lars, the MidSea
> troops manage to cut the advancing Ice Demon lines into two parts.
> The front guard continue fast approach towards north, while the
> bulk of the army are delayed and partially blocked in Tana.
> 
> I'll change the events for this year to reflect this.

Exactly what I was thinking.  Thank you.

Jefferson
http://www.picotech.net/~jeff_wilson63/rpg/



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