Jefferson wrote:
>OK, 1456 has been completed, so I'd like to look at what the war did to
>population. To make things a bit easier, let's consider what populations
>are going to be as of 1458, taking into account both events and normal
>population growth since the last update in 1448.
>
>I feel maximum population growth due to reproduction should around 20%.
>That is, assuming all conditions are perfect, a population could produce
>enough children to offset death due to age and expand by as much as 20%
>between 1448 and 1458. However, conditions aren't perfect anywhere on Qaiyore.
>
>Major Gains: Kaeir and Junder
>
>Based on the past ten years Kaeir has now held Tirmaeir long enough for it
>to be fully integrated. Tirmaeir is probably not as densely populated as
>the the islands, but has recovered from the wars. Kaeir has also picked up
>refugees from Taltheran and Videssia. An increase in population from
>634,000 to 800,000 doesn't seem unreasonable.
>
>Junder had a bloodless revolution and combined populations of Free City
>colonists and southern barbarians in the new government. Magic has become
>more common in the area than it was. They lost some population in the
>Goblin War, but most of it was "surplus" and easily made up. A population
>increase to 560,000 looks good (not quite doubling the old 310,000).
>
>Major Losses: Taltheran, Tana, Videssia
>
>Taltheran suffered a major civil war and lost territory to both Kaeir and
>Mir. Under the circumstances I see its population dropping from 1,200,000
>to 300,000.
>
>Thanks to Exquaestio's effort Tana wasn't hit as badly as it might have
>been, but it was still badly mauled. In addition to war casualties
>refugees fled in all directions, and they aren't likely to be coming back.
> The collapse of the government meant losses due to starvation and disease
>as well. I see Tana's population dropping to 1,000,000 from it's prior
>1,300,000.
>
>Videssia can't get a break. Two of its three sections were badly hit in
>the demon invasion. However, those who have survived this century are used
>to wars and capable of hiding out and hitting back, so things aren't as bad
>as they might have been. Celoa has also been integrating some of its
>western barbarians into the nation, and that population increase should be
>accounted for. I see the population dropping from 620,000 to 500,000.
>
>Special Cases: Mir, Parglug, Rhudyn, Sedonia
>
>The rich lands of Yora'Tirmar would allow Mir to expand off the
>overpopulated island of Celamyr. They likely also pick up some refugees
>from Tana. I can see Mir's population increasing from 2,510,000 to 2,600,000.
>
>Parglug was hit by the demons, but not badly. I would say no population
>increase or decrease.
>
>Rhudyn absorbed a number of refugees from Tana and may snip off a bit of
>the Territory claimed by Tana while they're at it. I see an increase from
>210,000 to 250,000. (Note, however, that we may wish to revise the 1448
>numbers based on the new history.)
>
>Sedonia is building and repairing infrastructure and has recovered from its
>civil war. They likely absorbed a number of refugees from Taltheran as
>well. I can see their population increasing to 24,000,000.
>
>Torphan is so little known that keeping the population as it is seems
>reasonable.
>
>Minor Gains:
>
>All other nations will have minor population gains. Those nations with low
>population densities will grow more than those with high population densities.
>
>Comments?
>
>
Commonwealth of the Shanariyya & the Kelshiri tribes:
Back in the 1430s, the Shanari began colonising the upper reaches of the
Kelshiri river, establishing the settlement of Kelshirserai. I imagine
by this time that presence is far stronger, and Shanari influence has
spread down most of the river. The initial signs of Shanari-Kelshiri
contact was that the Kelshiri chieftains were able to be integrated into
the theocratic-tribal hierarchy of the Commonwealth of the Shanariyya
given their similiar social organisation. The Shanari would obviously
be the stronger, as they are more sophisticated culturally, spiritually
and technologically.
I imagine that the tribes of the Upper Kelshir have been mostly, if not
completely, integrated into the Shanariyya Commonwealth, and influence
extended down to the Lower Kelshir. There would be a number of minor
Shanari trade settlements along the Lower Kelshir, possibly even one at
the mouth of the Kelshir.
Similiar trade settlements would have been established on the Kelshiri
Plains, and in its river system, though the Shanari have been less
successful in either their political or cultural influence.
Bel'Adne:
With the spread of the Millat into Bel'Adne, the division between the
Bel'Adnese and the Shanari on their frontier has dissolved to a greater
degree, leading to greater interaction in terms of commerce and
culture. The culturally more sophisticated Bel'Adnese will have started
influencing Shanari culture.
Milakanur:
I imagine something has happened in Milakanur, especially given the
increased activity by its neighbours (the Shanari, the Panchayyah, and
the Kaeireans), as well as the now very significant traffic that goes
through its quasi-protectorate of Port Jabau. The increased commerce
along is bound to have an indirect impact on Milakanur.
Ibrahim
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