The Phoenyx - celandra - [Cel] [Rules] Dice, Dif...

Sun

Aug 7
2005

13:14Z

[Cel] [Rules] Dice, Difficulty, & Fudge Points

All the discussion about fudge points got me started on some serious 
number crunching. Some of it is a reduplication of the fine print on the 
rules site.

Anyway, I'm assuming that actions are resolved by:

/diff/ + /det/ + /dice/ [+ /mod/],

where /diff/ = difficulty of action, /det/ = relevant determinant, 
/dice/ = roll of four fudge dice, and /mod/ =effect of doubling or extra 
action.

For the example case, I assume a typical 4-action turn, no extras and no 
doubling, so we can ignore /mod/. We can sum /diff/ & /det/, giving us a 
"target number" between -8 and +8.

I am also assuming, for the purposes of argument, that 8 fudge points is 
the maximum which can be applied to an action.

I'm not going to lay down the complete distribution table in this post, 
to save space, but I will put it on the Phoenyx site later. To summarize it:

1. If the target number is -5 or less, failure is inevitable without 
doubling or quadrupling the action.

2. If the target number is +5 or more, success is guaranteed for a 
single action.

3. In the region between +4 and -4, the minimum number of fudge points 
needed to avoid failure for a single action follows this table:

| Target | FP | Result range
|  +4    |  1 | Complete success to Mythic success
|  +3    |  2 | Complete success to Mythic success
|  +2    |  3 | Complete success to Extraordinary success
|  +1    |  4 | Complete success to Extraordinary success
|   0    |  5 | Complete success to Superior success
|  -1    |  6 | Complete success to Superior success
|  -2    |  7 | Complete success
|  -3    |  8 | Complete success
|  -4    |  8 | Mixed results

5. To have any chance to succeed at an Epic (-4) task requires that the 
relevant determinant be at least Good (+1); or that the action be 
doubled if the relevant determinant is Fair (0); or that the action be 
quadrupled if the relevant determinant is Mediocre (-1). Even then, it's 
only a 1% chance. If your relevant determinant is Legendary, your 
unmodified chance to succeed at an Epic task is 38.3%--your chance to 
avoid failure, however, is 61.3%.

6. Epic actions are thus possible, but if you undertake one, you can 
pretty much forget about using fudge points for anything else.

Andrew
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juuso

Sun

Aug 7
2005

20:01Z

[Cel] [Rules] Dice, Difficulty, & Fudge Points

Andrew Janssen wrote:
> Anyway, I'm assuming that actions are resolved by:
> 
> /diff/ + /det/ + /dice/ [+ /mod/],
> 
> where /diff/ = difficulty of action, /det/ = relevant determinant, 
> /dice/ = roll of four fudge dice, and /mod/ =effect of doubling or extra 
> action.

Yes, except that I have discarded the use /det/ a long time ago.
I just use a gut feeling of the action + society determinants to
come up with /diff/. This is because I felt that any single determinant
is typically quite too abstract to capture all aspects of the action.
And because I wanted to shift the attention away from the determinants
to the actions themselves.

> 1. If the target number is -5 or less, failure is inevitable without 
> doubling or quadrupling the action.

Not quite. I have always used openended dice, meaning that
if the first roll produces +4 (ie. ++++), I roll again, and
will count only positive results (ie. ++++,---0 = +4,
but ++++,+000 = +5). This goes on recursively: another ++++
generates a third roll. Of course, the same happens for
the negative end.

BTW, using 8 fudge points equals the roll of ++++ in the first
roll, so then you have a decent chance of getting dice result > +4.

> 2. If the target number is +5 or more, success is guaranteed for a 
> single action.

The same exception applies here as above.

juuso
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Andrew Janssen

Sun

Aug 7
2005

21:44Z

[Cel] [Rules] Dice, Difficulty, & Fudge Points

Juha Vesanto wrote:
> Andrew Janssen wrote:
> 
>>Anyway, I'm assuming that actions are resolved by:
>>
>>/diff/ + /det/ + /dice/ [+ /mod/],
>>
>>where /diff/ = difficulty of action, /det/ = relevant determinant, 
>>/dice/ = roll of four fudge dice, and /mod/ =effect of doubling or extra 
>>action.
> 
> 
> Yes, except that I have discarded the use /det/ a long time ago.
> I just use a gut feeling of the action + society determinants to
> come up with /diff/. This is because I felt that any single determinant
> is typically quite too abstract to capture all aspects of the action.
> And because I wanted to shift the attention away from the determinants
> to the actions themselves.
> 
> 
>>1. If the target number is -5 or less, failure is inevitable without 
>>doubling or quadrupling the action.
> 
> 
> Not quite. I have always used openended dice, meaning that
> if the first roll produces +4 (ie. ++++), I roll again, and
> will count only positive results (ie. ++++,---0 = +4,
> but ++++,+000 = +5). This goes on recursively: another ++++
> generates a third roll. Of course, the same happens for
> the negative end.
> 
> BTW, using 8 fudge points equals the roll of ++++ in the first
> roll, so then you have a decent chance of getting dice result > +4.
> 
> 
>>2. If the target number is +5 or more, success is guaranteed for a 
>>single action.
> 
> 
> The same exception applies here as above.

I hadn't realized about the open-ended rolling. There's an RPG I know of 
that uses a similar mechanic--they call it "exploding" dice.

Of course, that makes figuring probabilities slightly more difficult, 
but what's life without challenge?

Andrew

> juuso
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
> To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
> 

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Andrew Janssen

Mon

Aug 8
2005

02:44Z

[Cel] [Rules] Dice, Difficulty, & Fudge Points

Andrew Janssen wrote:
> Juha Vesanto wrote:
> 
>>Andrew Janssen wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Anyway, I'm assuming that actions are resolved by:
>>>
>>>/diff/ + /det/ + /dice/ [+ /mod/],
>>>
>>>where /diff/ = difficulty of action, /det/ = relevant determinant, 
>>>/dice/ = roll of four fudge dice, and /mod/ =effect of doubling or extra 
>>>action.
>>
>>
>>Yes, except that I have discarded the use /det/ a long time ago.
>>I just use a gut feeling of the action + society determinants to
>>come up with /diff/. This is because I felt that any single determinant
>>is typically quite too abstract to capture all aspects of the action.
>>And because I wanted to shift the attention away from the determinants
>>to the actions themselves.
>>
>>
>>
>>>1. If the target number is -5 or less, failure is inevitable without 
>>>doubling or quadrupling the action.
>>
>>
>>Not quite. I have always used openended dice, meaning that
>>if the first roll produces +4 (ie. ++++), I roll again, and
>>will count only positive results (ie. ++++,---0 = +4,
>>but ++++,+000 = +5). This goes on recursively: another ++++
>>generates a third roll. Of course, the same happens for
>>the negative end.
>>
>>BTW, using 8 fudge points equals the roll of ++++ in the first
>>roll, so then you have a decent chance of getting dice result > +4.
>>
>>
>>
>>>2. If the target number is +5 or more, success is guaranteed for a 
>>>single action.
>>
>>
>>The same exception applies here as above.
> 
> 
> I hadn't realized about the open-ended rolling. There's an RPG I know of 
> that uses a similar mechanic--they call it "exploding" dice.
> 
> Of course, that makes figuring probabilities slightly more difficult, 
> but what's life without challenge?

Ok, so if you get your roll of +4, the chance that you'll get at least 
an additional +1 or better on the open-ended roll is 80%. The base 
distribution is:

  0: 19.8%
+1: 39.5%
+2: 29.6%
+3:  9.9%
+4:  1.2%

But, we have to multiply those probabilities by 1.2% (the chance of 
rolling a natural +4):

+5: .238%
+6: .474%
+7: .355%
+8: .014%

When you take the open-ended roll into account, spending more than 8 
fudge points per action makes much more sense--16 fps would guarantee a 
roll of at least +8, and possibly as much as +12.

Andrew


>>juuso
>>----------------------------------------------------------------
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>>
> 
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
> To unsubscribe, send mail to celandra-off@phoenyx.net.
> 

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