----- Original Message -----
From: "Karen J. Cravens"
To:
Sent: Saturday, November 22, 2003 10:15 PM
Subject: GM: Gaming success
> In another (non-roleplaying) forum, someone mentioned roleplaying as an
> example in an argument. His assertion was that roleplaying, as an
> industry, was irrecoverably damaged by all the bad press about "Satanism"
> and whatnot, and has never really recovered. Several of us pointed out
> that it probably had more to do with paper prices, CCGs, and perhaps video
> games than any parental outrage.
>
> And someone else asserted, and this is what I'm curious about, that
> the roleplaying industry is larger than it's ever been. So that's my
> question... is it? And in what way? Unit sales? Or dollar sales, and if
> so what part does inflation and cover price increases play (that is, are
> there more roleplayers, or the same number (or fewer) paying more per
> book)?
I don't have the hard datum, but I'm going to toss what I know, or _think_ I
know, anyway...
The answer is between the extremes. The number of roleplayers is probably
at a point much higher than it's been in a long time. The reasons, I
suspect, are demographic as much as cultural, at least in the US; if a
certain percent of a certain population will get into the hobby, and the
size of that demographic changes, then your baseline numbers change.
(Thought exercise: If D&D had come about 20 years earlier, in time to hit
the Baby Boomers, where would the industry be now?)
The simple fact is that this is, and likely always will be, a niche
industry. As a result, margins ain't that great, and "excellent profits"
are never going to be what many other industries would think of. After all,
it's publishing, and it's limited-interest publishing at that, so you're
never going to have sustained volume of sale large enough to be noticed on
any real scale.
PR is a problem, but the "Satanism" thing just isn't the factor it once was.
It's more the "geek" thing now, as witnessed by a recent GE commercial aired
during the Today show where someone's "geek" creds were established by a D&D
3.x Player's Handbook appearing in their bookbag. That's a more persistent
stigma, though at least it isn't the revulsion-laden stereotype used by
pseudo-Christian fearmongers; it's a pigeonhole, but at least it's a nicer
one.
>From the industry standpoint, other than demographic realities about the
limits of the industry, there are lots of factors. Paper and related
physical publishing costs are one, but these have been getting offset by
technology; initially the desktop publishing revolution, and now the advent
of Internet publishing are lowering the barriers substantially.
Distribution is always a problem area, but we're not the only ones with such
gripes, and again the Internet is starting to bring some changes, though not
always for the better. Development is also a key point--ask any game
designer, real or would-be. OGL and d20 took quite a bit if the sting away;
even if the d20 starts to slack as WotC plays "Simon Sez" with the d20
license, OGL is still there, and it's making game design much less work.
(Yes, FUDGE has been out there for an age, but it hasn't exactly sparked as
a design framework like the d20 variants the OGL has wrought, for good or
ill.)
And of course, if the economy sucks and disposable income tanks, well, I
don't have to tell anyone here what happens to spending habits. Compare
2003 with, say, 1996 and you have the point here. The business end is
cyclical...you get a burst of new outfits, new products, and new ideas, and
then the herd gets culled hard and it's lean for a while. Small outfits go
away. Sometimes big ones, too. New ones take their place in the next
upswing, and the cycle continues.
CCGs...I have a personal loathing of these creatures, but from an economic
standpoint, they've probably been positive. I've anecdotal evidence that
these high-volume, low-footprint cash cows are what keep a number of gaming
stores open in many areas; add to this the income to outfits that can then
sink that cash into traditional RPGs and, well, I guess I have to say it's a
mixed-positive. Perhaps it's a drain of interest, cash, and talent, but
it's probably also helping sustain portions of the industry at the same
time.
Overall...we're not _quite_ in a Golden Age, but it's far from a Dark Age.
Many outfits aren't in as good shape as they were 3-4 years ago, but there's
a good deal of life in the industry. Even if it is d20 product of often
questionable quality. (It's like I said about the demographics, if the base
pool is larger, the sub-groups are larger...even the ones we'd rather do
without.) The new factors of Internet publishing and distribution and the
OGL are offsetting general economics just now; otherwise I suspect there
wouldn't be quite as much activity on the business end. It's an unstable
environment right now, though...a new change in OGL, new Internet copyright
laws, the failure of a major player, or a serious uptrend--or downtrend--in
the economy could all tilt the balance some way or the other and change the
landscape in a matter of months.
I'm rambling. Still, I hope this helps...
---Darth Stomper--
Dark Chairman, Stomper Institute for Thaumaturgy and Heronism (S.I.T.H)
GURPS fan - GMAST-L Old One (once banished) - Philosopher - Iron Otaku -
- Alternate Historian - General Crank - email: bravado@mindspring.com
"Where running for your life before lunch is a way of life"
MxLP Count: 1
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